Washington and Oregon are required to manage the non-tribal impact (death) on wild upriver (meaning those that pass over Bonneville Dam) chinook salmon to no more than 2% of the run. Run size is based first on estimates, then by actual #'s over the dam. For 2004, commercial non-tribal interests were allocated 0.8% out of the total 2%, with the remaining 1.2% going to sport fishers. To date, the commercial interests have realized close to their 0.8% impact, and have been suspended from further activity. The sport fishers have realized only a fraction of their 1.2% allowable impact.

However, this is all based on a run forecast of 360,000 upriver chinook (wild + hatchery). If the run turns out to be smaller than forecast, the commercial impact will have exceeded their 0.8% allocation, and the excess will be taken out of the sport allocation. If the actual run size is MUCH smaller than forecast, the commercial impact may be sufficient to account for the total 2% impact allocation, and any further fishing by sport interests will cause the total non-tribal impact to exceed 2%, and DFW will have failed to manage the impact.

So, until the #'s over Bonneville indicate a run closer to forecast, it becomes more and more risky for DFW to continue the sport fishery.