Mike -
The escapement goal for the Skagit summer/fall chinook is 14,900. It is important to remember that these are ESA listed fish it is likely than what is needed prior to any target fisheries is a history of producing consistent returns well above escapement needs prior to target fisheries on those stocks. Over the last 10 years the escapement goal has been met once twice and 4 times out of the last 20 years.

While the run is certainly expected to larger than the escapement goal it is key to remember that a variety of fisheries intercept these fish prior to them reaching the river. For example it is exepted that only 65% of the forecasted run will actually escapement the fisheries to spawn - once again the escapement will likely be below the goal. This year 3.5 to 4% of the run will likely be caught in Alaska fisheries, 24 to 25% in Canadian fisheries, 3.1% in various Washington sport fisheries (most in hooking mortalities and blackmouth fisheries) and 4% in various Washington commerical fisheries (more or less evenly divided between treaty and non-treaty).

As you can see it is likely to be an uphill battle for any in-river chinook fisheries targeting these wild fish. It will taken improved survival conditions (better marine survival and improved habitat) and in the future river anglers taking part in the North of Falcon process so that some of the harvestable fish are allocated to a river fishery rather than increase marine opportunites.

No offense but I find it laughable that folks are comfortable harvesting wild salmon when the "science" says there is harvestable salmon yet find the same science lacking when it comes to steelhead.

tight lines
S malma