I personally think it has something to do with the amount of rainfall you get weeks before the fish are actually due to show up , the years when we don't get alot of rain the fish don't tend to show up early and bite good in the sound and the rivers , on the other hand when we get alot of rainfall early the fish show up early , don't bite well at all even in salt water. I think they smell the rivers that they are headed for way out in the salt and puts them on the move with one thing on there mind The urge to spawn and they lose the desire to eat. Another reason could be that our fish have to travel so much farther to return to thier spawning grounds that by the time they make it here alot of them have reached a point where spawning is more important that stopping to have a bite, I also believe that the reason they hit dicknites is out of aggravation Kinda like when a fly gets in your face once or twice you'll let it buzz you about the third time you'll take a swat at it .