Here's the potential real downside from Forbes magazine. Can we stand a further economic down turn?

"But these higher prices benefit producers such as OPEC nations and oil companies. Profits of major oil concerns like Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people ), ChevronTexaco (nyse: CVX - news - people ) and BP (nyse: BP - news - people ) are up sharply in the past year, as are their share prices, which hit recent bottoms right at the start of the Iraq war, though that may be a coincidence.

The fortunes of oil services companies like Schlumberger (nyse: SLB - news - people ) and Halliburton (nyse: HAL - news - people ) have turned even more sharply. Schlumberger's share price is up by 48% since the start of the war; Halliburton's is up 42%, though it is still well below where it was at the time Dick Cheney, the company's former chief executive, became vice president of the United States. Wall Street is bullish for continued gains as Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers have all in the past year upgraded their ratings for Halliburton shares.

The bad news is higher energy prices have often been harbingers of recessions. Oil and energy prices rose sharply in 1981, 1990 and 2000, and each time an economic downturn followed in their wake."