SR,
I think it is the bars that are keeping him there.

As far as Ty goes, you can bet Emmert already has folks in mind as a replacement if he doesn't win next year. It has been seen at many schools that the coach who has a good recruiting classes isn't alway the one that coaches them to victories.
I also think Emmert already had a short list of AD candidates before he sent Turner packing. Victories and the stadium remodel are prority number one now. Turner couldn't deliver either.