Salmo g is correct; at one time the escapement goal on the Skagit was 10,300.

That was established in 1984 and was based on the best "guesses" at the amount of habitat available for juvenile rearing. The question at the time was how much of the mainstem Skagit is really useable by the juvenile rearing. It was thought to be some what limited and time has demostrated that the amount of potential rearing habitat was even more limited than thought.

I think that the last time there were 8,000 or more wild spawners in the system was about 1990. I seem to remember a decent year or two of CnR fishing in the spring since then.

In regards to the 10,000 escapement that number has been exceeded 4 times in the last 35 years and each time those escapements produced fewer recruits than spawners. Close looks at the available data indicates that under the survival conditions seen since 1980 that carry capacity of the basin for steelhead is less than 10,000 spawners. Three different attempts at looking at Skagit specific spawner/recruit information pegged MSY forthe basin at between 4,000 and 4,500; below the current agreed to goal of 6,000.

In the past 30 years there has been a case or two when the bulk of the winter run did not show up in the Skagit above the Dallas and Sauk unitl after mid-April. So it may be possible the fish will yet show up however when looking at the indications of the wild returns through out Puget Sound it does not looking promising for the PS wild steelhead in general or the Skagit fish. It looks like marine survivals may have declined even further (is that possible?) though the exact strength of this year's runs will not be known for a couple more months.

Tight lines
Curt