I wouldn't count on either.

Globalism will be forced on the Iraqi's whether they like it or not.

The real problem for the US lies in it's decision to leave a residual force of 50k troops South Korea style. The Sadr Army has stated many times if troops do not leave completely by the 2011 deadline they will take up arms against the occupiers.

We're not done with Iraq,............. not by a longshot.
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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.