This post is an attempt to answer the question about how the season is going. Web site catch data for harvest through Oct 14 is compared to the final model retention predictions through Oct 14. The final model is the North of Falcon model after it was updated for more gill net days and tribal harvest. Comparisons between the model and actual are complicated due to the issues of hatchery/wild, retention/release mortality, and Chehalis fish/Humptulips fish.

The following is a comparison for the Cowboys through October 14:
Area 2C
Actual Chinook catch was 1,139 or 158% of the model.
Actual Coho catch was 393 or 179% of the model.
Actual Chum catch was 44 or 275% of the model.

In area 2A/2D it is more complicated in that retention is for hatchery Chinook, all Coho, and no Chum. The expected harvest can be extracted from the model and compared to actual harvest as follows:
Actual Chinook catch was 70 or 48% of the model.
Actual Coho catch was 6,829 or 41% of the model.
Actual Chum catch was 0 or 100% of the model.

Chum mortality in 2A/2D is for release mortality which is conveniently not recorded.

Overall the Cowboys should harvest more Chinook than the model predicted. For Coho most come from 2A/2D and it looks like the total will be far short of the model. Only 16 Chum were modeled and 44 were harvested so they are ahead on Chum.