The fallacy lies in the notion that accurate forecasting, of just about anything, is attainable.

I'm with Stonefish. WDFW and the Tribes have proven capable of executing emergency closures; neither has proven capable of foreseeing the future.

Because I realize that forecasting, hopelessly ineffective as it is, will continue to be the tool used, I'd also like to give a nod to Krijack's last suggestion about sampling Alaska and BC for insight into how realistic the pre-season forecast is before agreeing to State and Tribal fisheries plans. Whatever it is, something needs to change.