I don't know but it is not just staging but pass-through. It could/should be answered by tagging studies or possibly genetic studies. WDF did a lot way back that could be consulted if there is nothing more recent.
Besides, with Skagit and Stilly so low why take any when you can get the Snoho fish in the Snoho? Why put additional unnecessary pressure on depressed stocks when better alternatives (stock-wise) exist?
To use the economic argument would probably say that taking WA Chinook and coho in BC and AK is economically a better idea because more money is spent per fish. Gotta maximize the economic return.
Pass-throughs? That is the other side of my questions. Do the Stilly and Skagit bound fish co-mingle with Snohomish fish in "Humpy Hollow" or do they come around Possession and head due north along Whidbey's shoreline to stage in front of their rivers of origin thereby naturally separating themselves from Shohomish fish?
As to why not simply target Snohomish fish in the rivers? Well, I am not quite as cynical about value of fisheries as a motivator but will say that my salt water boat got out twice last summer - both times for shrimp. Are humpies my fish of choice? Certainly not. But with the way things are going one tries to find meaningful opportunities/justifications to get out on the salt.
Oh, and the personal longevity clock is ticking louder and louder as the years fly by.