CM-
I think the reason that the wild fish are not shrinking as fast as the hatchery fish has more to do with the natural selection that the natural environment is placing on the natural spawning Chinook. Historically Chinook were the largest salmon because the habitat that they typically were most successful in selected for large body size; large spawning substrate, heavy flows, etc. That selection continues (though to a lesser degree because of habitat alternation) and helps to off set the selection towards smaller size the ocean fisheries on sub-adult fish that is occurring. At the same time the hatchery fish once they return are experiencing that selection back towards a larger/older body size. In fact they continue to see selection towards smaller/young adults.

If the future of Puget Sound hatchery Chinook isn't going to be one of pink and hatchery Chinook being of similar size there has to be major changes. The tidal Exchange article argues that in the hatchery environment that just like in the wild that the selection process work against that which is being seen while the fish are at sea feeding. The proposal is not to blindly breed for larger fish but rather attempt to re-establish a population that has the traits common say 50 years ago.

If we hope to ever see larger hatchery Chinook there really are two alternatives; confining all Chinook fishing to extreme terminal areas by eliminating all ocean fisheries or attempt to reverse the shrinking trend through careful husbandry. Somehow I don't think that former is likely leaving us with the second option.

In the case of supply more feed of the listed southern resident orcas we have only 3 options. The first is to once again close all ocean fisheries and hope at the same time that freshwater habitats can be restored quickly enough that between the two actions the numbers and size of Chinook increase to the point adequately feed the orcas. Again don't expect those actions to occur and even if they did I don't know whether the orcas have enough time to survive the decades likely needed to reverse the current conditions.

The second option which is more of short term fix would be dramatically increasing the numbers of hatchery Chinook released in Puget Sound. This would increase the biomass of Chinook available to the orcas but immediately compounds the problem of excessive hatchery spawners in the wild. An ESA win on one side and a loss on the other side.

The third option is to increase the size of the returning hatchery through intelligently using selectively breeding for a Chinook to restore the traits common decades ago. This option is doable, costs little money, makes common sense, and benefits the orcas as well as a variety of fisheries. To me the options appear to be to continue the status quo and what two icon species of Puget Sound continue to slide towards extinction or take proactive actions to reserve acknowledged selection we are exerting on both species. Some think the option is a no brainer!

Curt