There is no doubt that predation by an increasing number of pinnipeds in Puget Sound has had a significant impact on returning Chinook. The most recent scientific studies bear that out. It was interesting that yesterday's presentation to the Commission included a PowerPoint slide showing two scenarios related to an increase in smolt production - one where all of those made it past the gauntlet and returned and a second where other predators simply ate up all of that additional production yielding no increase in Chinook for the SRKW. I point that out to show that even the experts don't have a firm answer; what we got was a range of numbers (a SWAG).

But to your question. My layman's opinion is that any modest increase in production (all other factors remaining the same) will be subject to the same pinniped mortality rate currently being experienced. Yes, there would probably be some improvement to SRKW but when you crunch the numbers the increase will be minimal compared to needs. It is also possible that increased production could result in an increase in all predators over time. Conversely, in that presentation there is another slide which shows the number of seals that would have to be removed (both one time and then annually) to effect certain increases in returns. Unfortunately, all of that is academic given the limitations set forth in the MMPA - unless Congress were to pass an amendment to the MMPA to make it easier for managers to deal with pinniped issues currently being experienced or like at the Ballard locks starting in 1981.

Here is the link: https://wdfw.wa.gov/commission/meetings/2018/12/dec1418_06_presentation.pdf.