Had 1/4 inch since midnight here. So far mostly been soaker rain and boy are plants loving it! Only going to pick up about 350 cfs at Porter then back down hill for the flows. https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

Rain was needed as the ground was starting to dry out way to much for this time of year.

Yeah, it was cracking.

Well 28G had it right because we got way more rain than forecast and it is still raining! Radar has everything coming from the Northwest so it is not heat wave time either with highs in low 60's on down the road here.

Well it is looking more and more like a record El Nino. The next NOAA ENSO forecast will arrive June 11.

A "very strong" El Niño could wreak havoc


El Niño events occur every two to seven years, when shifts in wind and current patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean cause sea surface temperatures to rise 0.9 F (0.5 C) above historical averages, resulting in profound knock-on effects on the global climate. The world is rapidly exiting the neutral phase.

The world's most recent El Niño spanned from May 2023 to March 2024 and was partially responsible for 2024 being the hottest year on record. If the upcoming El Niño is strong or very strong, 2027 could surpass the previous record, according to Climate Brief's State of the Climate assessment, published April 21.

In fact, the impending El Niño may itself break records. "Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s," Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, wrote on X on May 5.

If a "super" El Niño does occur, it could rival the strongest on record: a catastrophic 1877 event that spurred the 1876-to-1878 global famine. The famine killed over 50 million people, or 3% of the world's population at the time.

Although the social, political and economic landscapes have changed since the 1877-to-1878 El Niño, the upcoming event could still seriously threaten food, water and economic security around the world, Deepti Singh, head of the Climate Extremes and Impacts Lab at Washington State University, told The Washington Post.

"What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme," Singh said.

More recent examples demonstrate the threat of strong and very strong El Niño phases. For example, an El Niño in 1997 to 1998 led to an estimated global economic loss of $32 billion to $96 billion.

NOAA ENSO forecaster Nathaniel Johnson recently told Live Science that a very strong El Niño would impact fisheries and crops, as well as heighten the risk of wildfires and hurricanes in parts of the world.

"You've got more people that are living in poverty already and if you get a reduction in crop yields because of drought or flooding [from El Niño] then that drives prices even higher," Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading in the U.K., told the BBC. "So we're looking at potentially quite huge humanitarian impacts this year, especially if the crisis in the Middle East continues."

The next NOAA ENSO forecast will arrive June 11.

Wow, never ending summer of droughts and weather doom. Kinda sounds like this state’s epa’s constant forecast of fires, droughts and the greatest of “little boys “ heading our ways.

Kinda tiring and never ending it is. One could check out the U of W’s Cliff Mass’s weather blogspot. Likely we’ll make it thru this.

Enuff said by this old El Niño , so have a safe summer, and catch a fish or three........

having a bad day? For myself following the weather is about where I live and fish which are a lifelong interest. After that just interesting to watch the strange things that come down the road in media. One has to admit they never waste a good disaster and might even need to invent one or two!

They do freak out easily. To me, the "weather" will do as it will and likely isn't exactly what is predicted. As a society, we seem incapable of calmly looking at something; it has to be a crisis.

But the long term trends scare me. Glaciers disappearing, fish disappearing, all those whales dieing, and so on. If you have been around for a lot of years and watched things have really changed. If you can't see the change you be come the lobster in the pot where the water started out cold.

Several of us have been looking around for the tribal and NT 2026 season days and so far it is not up on either WDFW or QIN websites. Best I have for now is it is similiar to last years seasons.

I have the 2026 model if anyone wants it.

So the QIN will start week 41 10-4 and by the end of Nov. will fish 39 days. 4 to 5 days a week from 10/25. The NT nets will fish start Sept. 27 2 days and same following week with a total 2026 season of 10 days.

Fishing tidewater is just going to be ugly for sure solikely the bay is going to rather busy as it is the only place to get around the nets.

For you upper basin guys the Chehalis Tribe is modeled at 5608 on Coho. The days they fish are not provided. So much for the Commissions new Grays Harbor policy which frankly is nothing but useless meaningless words.

https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/

Well the Chehalis at Porter is above record low flows but only about 40% of average. The bit of rain we had helped but more or less flat lined flows on the graph so I doubt that it helps all that long.

And another close to home.

State Supreme Court rules against fishing rights claim

By Brad Shannon

The Olympian

Friday November 14, 2008





The state Supreme Court ruled Thursday that a Chehalis tribe member is prevented from owning a gill net as part of his sentence on state criminal charges that he illegally fished on nontribal land.

The unanimous ruling, written by Justice Charles Johnson, reversed part of a Court of Appeals decision.


It means that Gerald Cayenne, an enrolled member of the Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis, can be prohibited by a state court from owning a gill net as part of his eight-month sentence - despite his claims of native fishing rights ensured by the federal government.

"Limiting the trial court's sentencing authority, as Cayenne requests, would create the unwanted result of permitting tribal lands to be havens for criminals avoiding justice after violating state laws," Johnson wrote.

Johnson added that courts may impose crime-related sanctions "to the extent they serve the purpose of sentencing and the crime related-prohibitions follow the individual during the prohibition's validity."

A jury convicted Cayenne of one felony count of fishing illegally with a net. A judge in Grays Harbor County Superior Court then imposed the gill-net prohibition as part of an eight-month sentence. The Court of Appeals overturned the fish-net sanction on grounds that state courts could not restrict Cayenne's fishing rights while on the reservation.

"It is the first time the Washington Supreme Court said it's OK to regulate tribal members' activities on the reservation ." said Gregory Link, one of two lawyers with the Washington Appellate Project who handled Cayenne's appeal. Link said it is too early to say whether another appeal will be made to the federal courts.

Attorney Jay Geck, who wrote a friend-of-court brief in the case for the Attorney General's Office, said the ruling follows a U.S. Supreme Court precedent in extending court orders onto reservations.

The case dated to 2005, when enforcement officers with the state Department of Fish and Wildlife saw Cayenne illegally using a gill net along the Chehalis River in an area off of the reservation. He was arrested and charged with two felony counts of unlawful use of nets.