It seems that this year's returns to Columbia, Baker Trap, Lake WA trap are all on the low to really low side. Reading that Chinook counts in AK are way down. Is there any actually quantified return on the Coast that is looking good? Fraser stuff is too early for the bulk of the run.

Just heard from Fraser panel and the Early Stuart are about 2/3 of forecast. But, as I remember, ES were almost always weak anyway.

Baker sockeye are returning well below the pre-season forecast. I was up there for the opening weekend and landed 2. I was anticipating a better catch, but they are moody fish. Sure are tasty though!

My only real experience with sockeye fishing is Kenai. There were enough really stupid ones around to feed me. And they do eat well.

Most recent Fraser nortice was scary. Early Stuart was updated at about 2/3 of forecast; not bad. The Summers were updated to about 20% of forecast. Haven't had a fishing report yet from family on the Kenai to se how the annual fillet collection is going.

It looks like the Sockeye catching outta Baker was picking up, with really nice sized fish showing up on the web...

Glad the catching is picking up but what is the return versus forecast? If less fish are coming back than we thought, coastwide, then maybe there is an issue out there worth considering.

I know sockeye are generally low on the list of salmon pursued here. The most abundant salmon species are the pink, chum, and sockeye and the one thing they share, besides the ability to be super abundant, is they feed low on the food chain. The decline in these species at least should suggest problems with food supply in the Pacific. If there isn't enough for them, there is isn't enough for the forage fish that support the more popular Chinook and coho.

Latest update from the Fraser is that all of run timings are significantly down from forecast.

Any idea what is driving the numbers being below forecast?

There have been ongoing problems in the N Pacific. The heavy pink programs have been correlated with declines in just about everything south of the N Pac. Apparently the AK sockeye are further north and don't compete with the pinks. Temperatures are warming, resources are shifting. It's likely enough things so that one isn't the "major" cause so nobody has to change their "minor" impacts.

Also, there were big slides in the Fraser at Big Bar and in the Chilko. These may have messed up in river passage and water quality conditions.

I think that some of the stocks have had various disease and parasite issues that may impact spawning success. You get the spawners but only half the production. I miss the day to day Fraser management as is was, back then anyway, the most data rich management we had on the Pacific Coast. And they still threw curves at you.

But when you could look back to data from the late 1800s/early 1900s and beyond to inform your management options you could blame ignorance.