Rivers look like they're flooding. It's windy here this evening. 101 is closed due to a wreck east of Discovery Bay. Football looks good Sunday!

Not quite to the trees here...but making a concerted effort.

I don't think the Skagit will hit flood stage...but its slapping its banks pretty good. It's running 20,000 cfs and rising.

MB

Ok...it made the trees....

26,000 cfs and rising...over 21' now..and still raining.

It still has another 20 FEET to go before it hits the Oct. 21 '03 level. Were safe until it hits 50'...which it never will....but it is ugly, chocolate milk water.

Mike

Mike -
You might want to check out the following:
http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/peak?site_no=12194000&agency_cd=USGS&format=html

In the last 200 years the Skagit at Concrette has been over a stage hight of 50 feet at least 3 times. In the early 1800s the flow was roughly 3 times that from the event last October with a stage hight pushing 70 feet.

Tight lines
S malma

Smalma:

Hmmm. I see on the chart where it shows the "gage height" in the years 1815, 1856, etc. up through 1922 showing above the 45' mark...then a clear change takes place.

I am not positive, but I believe the gage itself was placed in 1925. I don't see how they could get any accurate data prior to that time.

Last year, from what we heard, was the highest level (41.5') ever recorded on the Skagit at Concrete. I am sure they used some geological dating techniques to determine those other dates.

Not to discount Mother Nature, however...piss her off and there can be hell to pay. If they continue logging (moonscaping) as they have in the past there will be little watershed to hold it in the hills...I wonder what the conditions (timber, watershed, etc) were back in the late 1800's that gave them such high estimates?

Our back door sits at about the 60' mark...so I guess the potential does exist.

You in the Insurance biz, by chance?...:-))

Mike

Mike -
It was my understanding that the flow last October was the highest since first of the dams had put in place.

I believe that the high flows from more than a century ago are based on flood or scour marks on the canyon walls there at the Dalles and calucations of what flows it took to create those marks - the dates based on ages of the trees.

The dams do provide some protection by storing some of the flood waters. Using the flood of last October as a base - if that rain event had lasted even a 1/2 day longer, or there were lots of snow on the ground or it was one of several closely spaced events (occurring prior to the dam operators having a chance to release the stored water caught in an earlier event) they would provide only limited protection from those really large events. Given the history of the area it is not a question of if that type of flood (200,000 t0o 500,000 cfs - last October was 166,000) will occur again but rather than when. Hopefully it will not be in our life times but who knows.

Tight lines
S malma

Smalma,

The dams (from what I heard) are what saved our tails this last Oct. when
the floods came. I read in the Skagit Herald that the Army Corps of Eng. stepped
in and took control of the releases and
maintained levels that the river could
handle while not blowing out the dams.

Here is an article I found some time ago.
You should find this interesting:

http://www.stumpranchonline.com/skagitjournal/SkagitCtyRiv/SkagitRFlood1.html

There is an image there of the city of
Hamilton, which in that flood of 1896.
The pic was taken in 1898 apparently.

Hopefully it won't happen again in our lifetimes...or our childrens.

There are no preotections we are allowed
to install here. The area is declared as "wilderness", so we can't install any
type of retaining walls, barriers, etc.
Probably wouldn't help much, anyway.
If the river decides to reclaim her territory
we ain't gonna stop it...

Mike

Uh-Oh...I think I broke the Internet!

M

Mike -
Thanks -- an interesting read.

Our rivers certainly more dynamic than most think.

Tight lines
S malma