Here’s Ward’s first report for 2007. Fishing will, as usual, be good. Catching might be even better.



Dave





ALBACORE NEWS - #1 OF 2007

Greetings to all for this first installment of the Albacore News of 2007. I hope you all fared well through the winter and are ready for what appears to be a very good summer of tuna, coho, and pink salmon fishing.

As with all other years, the first Albacore News of the season is as much a communications check and discussion of recent ocean conditions as it is a report on tuna since they are normally weeks away at this time.

First - the Albacore Update:
About a month ago in my newspaper column I suggested to my readers who were planning summer fishing trips that they should plan for at least one albacore trip out of the northern Oregon bays and possibly even Neah Bay in mid-July. Even a month ago it was already looking like ocean currents and weather across the Northern Pacific plus the Arctic were going to allow the albacore to come as close as fifteen miles to some of the usual places on the Oregon Coast. Those same weather and current patterns might even draw the albacore within reach (30 miles) of La Push and Neah Bay on the Olympic Peninsula. Due to the amount of fresh water coming from the Columbia River this year, the tuna will only rarely get within 40 miles of Westport and Ilwaco before mid-August. Since I also expect chinook salmon fishing to be abysmally poor on the Washington coast in July, that might also be a time that local charter boats could be talked into a tuna trip. Later in the summer, however, coho fishing should be so good north of the Columbia River that charter boats will show little interest in costly tuna trips.


Those ocean current and weather patterns are continuing, so that prediction appears to be on track.


As of this writing, the leading edge of the albacore migration should begin to appear within a hundred miles of the Oregon Coast on about the 14th of June. With the right ocean temperatures, large numbers of albacore should begin arriving nearer shore in our area around July 4th. As always, the north winds caused by warm weather inland will push the tuna farther off shore. The south to west winds that bring cool or cloudy weather inland will draw the albacore closer. Three cool cloudy days in Portland in July means that the tuna will get as close as 15 miles from Tillamook Bay if the ocean temperatures are right (56-60 degrees).

Have your boat gassed and ready to go in July for that third day when the weathermen predict three cloudy days in a row in the Willamette Valley.

Ocean Conditions Update:
As you all may remember from last year, the entire Northern Pacific Ocean was extraordinarily cold leading to outstanding plankton growing conditions along the entire coasts of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California. These great conditions fed an unusually productive food chain for all of the young salmon that migrated to sea last year. The result will be huge pink salmon returns to several Puget Sound rivers and great coho returns to all coastal rivers. This will be a great summer for anglers pursuing those species.


Those conditions persisted throughout the winter and even led to the early appearance of upwelling conditions on the Washington and Oregon Coasts in February. 2007 will be another year of great survival for all species of salmon that migrated to sea in the last three months.


Of particular interest to climatologists last winter was that the North Pacific was so far below normal temperature-wise all winter that the El Nino on the equator was canceled out and Southern California never got its El Nino flooding rains. This is more good news for salmon in the North Pacific.


None of the above is good news for the true believers in global warming, since, with the exception of one three-month period in the summer of 2004, the North Pacific and the world began a gradual normal cooling trend in 2001 and 2002.


This global and Pacific Ocean cooling trend led to the huge chinook returns to the Columbia in 2004 and 2005, record pink salmon returns in 2001, and excellent summer steelheading this year. Coastal dungeness crab harvests will fail this year due to events in 2004, but the cold North Pacific and global cooling will result in a speedy recovery of that resource to record commercial harvests in 2009 and beyond. Even chinook will be responding to global cooling. This year's poor chinook returns are due to events in 2004, but I expect all-time record returns to the Columbia by 2009 and continuing through 2011
due to Pacific Ocean and global cooling.


One result of global cooling to chronicle should it occur will be the temporary expansion of pink salmon into rivers farther south. I have already asked my customers in the Tillamook Bay area to let me know if they hear of unusual salmon sightings in August and early September in the Miami and Kilchis Rivers. Since those rivers have had native chum salmon in the past and chum spawning areas are suitable for pinks, I would not be surprised if pinks appear and local anglers mistake them for small early coho. On this planet, you cannot have pink salmon runs expanding south and global warming at the same time. Period.


The bad news last year for salmon anglers was that the ocean was so cold (occasionally 8 degrees below normal) that most salmon runs were delayed, until they were so late the fish wouldn't bite. Puget Sound's coho were especially affected with some November runs not appearing in numbers on spawning grounds until after Christmas. This year appears to be different. While most of the North Pacific temperatures are still below normal except for a wedge between Coos Bay and Hawaii, most areas are only a couple degrees below normal. If these conditions persist along with the prolific food chain currently in place, not only will coho return on time in large numbers, they will bite.

Enough of all these extraneous issues. I hope to be writing more about albacore soon.

Tight Lines to All - Ward Norden

Cool.Good luck,
STRIKE ZONE

I don't know who "Ward" is, but he should stick to fishing reports and leave the science to scientists...he's got it wrong in about ten spots regarding the ocean temps and what they are causing and caused by.

Surface temperatures over the earth have increased...no way to argue against that...and to argue that the colder water in the north Pacific is evidence against global climate change is flat out wrong, and ignorant of the mechanics of global climate.

Warm surface temperatures have melted more ice...more ice water is circulating in the northern Pacific, lowering average water temperatures there. This is evidenced by several things...the reduction in polar ice, the raised surface temps, and a corresponding increase in ocean depth.

At the same time, the equator is seeing greatly increased water temps.

When the temperature gradient steepens between the pole and the equator, you have a recipe for stronger and stronger hurricanes...I hope everyone has already notice that happening.

The "pink salmon expansion" theory came out of one of his bodily orifices...there is no science to back up what he is saying.

The tuna fishing, on the other hand, looks to be good this year...I did it last year for the first time, and it was pretty fun...expensive, but fun.

Fish on...

Todd

Is this "Ward Norden" the outdoor writer?

Fish on...

Todd

"...true believers in Global Warming,"

That bit of cynicism pretty much sums up the credibility of his expertice on the topic of anything from this point forward.

Yes, he writes an outdoor column somewhere on the Seattle side and he has a fair amount of experience in tracking ocean conditions.

We all have our own opinions on various issues. That is what makes this board interesting.

The flare in the lower left corner looks like it might be able to setup the TUNA highway.

Thanks Todd... I was starting to dry heave about 1/2 of the way through that first post.

It would be interesting to go back several years and compare his past predictions to what really happened seeing as how he is now predicting "all-time record returns to the Columbia by 2009 and continuing through 2011". Really? All time record returns? The WDFW could use someone like this.

Maybe he's got this whole thing figured out more than anyone else but something doesn't smell right. Then again, I'm skeptical of most everything.

It wasn't long ago that people who spoke of global warming were laughed at. Now most everyone is on board.
There are some well respected academics coming up with other ideas. One of my professors from WWU has a theory that all of this stuff is solar related, and we are actually entering a cooling period. Interesting enough, he's a geomorphologist, and one of the leading experts in the world on glaciers..... I suppose that time will tell. As people we are really nothing more than maggots. We pretty much ruin everything we touch....
ugh.

Let's just say that Mr. Norden's predictions in the past have turned out to be quite unreliable.

Dave, I think having opinions is just fine...especially when those opinions are based in some fashion on actual facts and realities.

Making them up out of thin air, in direct conflict with facts and reality, based on ideological ideas...well, I guess it's OK to have those, too, but if that's the way it's going to be, then he's going to have to be up for taking heat for it from the "reality-based" crowd.

Fish on...

Todd

Here is an abstract from my old prof's recent paper.... Personally I've wondered if he's now on some oil companies dime, but interesting stuff regardless.
Neal

Global climate changes, global warming
Abstract: THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND PREDICTIONS FOR THE COMING CENTURY

EASTERBROOK, Don J., Dept. of Geology, Western Washington Univ, Bellingham, WA 98225, dbunny@cc.wwu.edu

At least five abrupt, global climate changes of 4-15° C in the past 16,000 years have implications for understanding present–day global warming: (1) the end of the last glacial maximum (~16,000 yrs. ago), (2) the onset of the Younger Dryas (~12,700 yrs. ago), (3) the end of the Younger Dryas (~11,500 yrs. ago), (4) in the early Holocene (~8,200 yrs. ago), and (5) during the Little Ice Age (~1600–1850 AD). Climatic models that predict soaring of global temperatures in the coming century as a result of increased atmospheric CO2, do not incorporate such geologic data. GISP2 ice cores show that late Pleistocene, abrupt, temperature fluctuations of 8–12° C occurred in only 20–100 years. The GISP2 ice core suggests warming of ~7° C in about a decade at the end of the Younger Dryas. These changes, 10 orders of magnitude greater than the 0.8° C global temperate of the past century, were clearly not caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. During these climatic changes 10Be and 14C production rates varied, suggesting a connection between global climate changes and solar variation. Global warming over the past century has not been constant–glaciers in the Cascade Range show distinct oscillations having a period of ~30 years, dating back to about 1790 AD. Glaciers advanced from about 1890–1920, retreated rapidly from ~1925 to ~1945, readvanced from ~1945 to ~1977, and have been retreating since the present warm cycle began in 1977. Comparable, cyclical, climatic fluctuations occurred in the North Pacific (PDO), the North Atlantic (NAO), Europe, and Greenland. Because the warming periods in these oscillations occurred well before atmospheric CO2 began to rise rapidly in the 1940s, they could not have been caused by increased atmospheric CO2 .and global warming since 1900 could well have happened without any effect of CO2. If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool slightly until about 2035, then warm about 0.5° C from ~2035 to ~2065, and cool slightly until 2100. The total increase in global warming for the century should be ~0.3 ° C, rather than the catastrophic warming of 3-6° C (4-11° F) predicted by the IPCC.

Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, Vol. 38, No. 7, p. 235

I don't know who this guy is, but his blending of political views and predictions are enough to make me skeptical. Has anyone found any of his past predictions and compared them to what happened?

I beleive he is the same guy who was aked to make a presentation to our outdoor writers group a few years ago. He caused quite a stir then with similar views.

Must I always be the voice of reason?

I don't doubt the good professor's claim or that data exists to support the five historical climate changes. I also don't think his paper does anything to disprove the fact anthropagenic gas is causing the current rise in global temps.

"Because the warming periods in these oscillations occurred well before atmospheric CO2 began to rise rapidly in the 1940s, they could not have been caused by increased atmospheric CO2 .and global warming since 1900 could well have happened without any effect of CO2."

While global warming since 1900 could well have happened without the effect of C0^2 , it didn't. The gas has been emitted into our atmosphere on a logarithmic scale since 1900. His future temperature predictions are based on the fact that "cycles continue as in the past," which excludes C0^2 from the equation. If he attemps to relate the scale of the 5 historical climate changes to todays period of global warming somewhere deeper in his text I would be interested in seeing it, for such a comparison would have to include all the current data on C0^2 to be worth the paper it's written on.

Everyone's invited to the offshore party.

Be safe!

Hans

I'm looking forward to doing the Tuna troll again what a blast... I'm still scrubbing tuna off my boat from the last time. That stuff is like epoxy! ~ FishNgKing

Well, normally I kinda lurk on this site as I mostly am only interested in Tuna fishing and lord knows there has not been much happening in that department.

Ward Norton writes a weekly "update" on Salmon U. I read them every week for a good chuckle. Some of the things he comes up with makes me wonder if if he is even talking about the same Pacific Ocean where I fish. Let's just say that some of his predictions are so far off base as to what is actually happening that is scary. I hope that his newsletter is free and no one paid for it.

Waiting for tuna,

Tower Todd

Climate, change like the shi$ strewn upon the internet BB hi-way, is real. The question is can we STOP it ???? That answer is NO NO NO. So stop wasting the time on BS when an interesting and hopeful report is posted .

Now go fuel up the F350 and sled drive your as% off getting there and have fun.....

RVW

He does not have a weekly update on SU . He sends in articies from time to time and they are added if found noteworthy.

Global Warming is a huge issue with many scholars on both sides. Believe or not believe. Act or don't act. Fish or .......FISH !

I personally read everything I can and then go find the TUNA.

Thanks for the first post.

Spud

I say what ever he is on I want some!!!PEACE

My thoughts were similar to yours Sol...
I want to go tuna fishing. It's nice to have a bright side to things! Kind of like marriage... your doomed, but at least there is someone else to do the dishes.

Neal