So I have 12 points built up for my elk drawing. So what bull permits would some of you put in for and why? I hunt western Wa. with modern firearm. I wold like to stick with western Wa? But the two units I am thinking about, are getting harder and harder to access?
Thanks Buck

Damm....12 points? I wish..should be a shoe-in. Toutle/Margaret come to mind.

9 points for me this year, but I head east to Quilomene.

9 points for me this year, but I head east to Quilomene.

Well for the last 12 years I have put in just for the Margaret, and then the Toutle. I am thinking you have to be a member of the mofia to get one of those tags or something? I have thought about the green river unit. The problem there is I would be going completely blind? I also thought aobut the early Quinault, and the Matheny? But I am still drawn to the Margaret. The prblem down there is the area where the good bulls hang out has grown way up. And I haven't heard of any good bulls in the last several years coming out of there? Same with the Toutle? By the way I would like just a really nice bull. If I got lucky enough to get soemthing huge then great. I am nottrying to be to picky, but I definately want a fairly decent bull. So keep the suggestions coming. Thanks so far.
Buck

Or a member of the game department...grin...Buddy of mine drew one of the archery bull permits toutle/margaret last year cant remember which....saw and called in some absolute monsters but had to settle for a nice 5x. They were mountain biking quite a ways back in....I know one things for certain...if I drew one of those permits I would spend most of my time scouting. Grown up areas mean no people and big bulls (bucks too) to me. Plus you know they havent been messed with for the most part. I think with some extensive scouting you could come away with a booner with one of those tags. Why chance just getting a "decent bull" when you have the chance at a magnum. I would not want to wait for another 12 years. Make it happen. Your only an hour and a half away.

Try the one with the best odds of getting drawn. I cant believe you have gone this long without getting drawn. Anyway I dont have much advice for the west side but the biggest bulls I have seen during archery seasons on the east side in the past were 368 cowiche (late season snow) and 328 (early rut) north of elensburgh. Plenty of public ground and not hard to figure out where the bulls hide (cant be lazy).

With that many points I'd hold out for where you want to hunt. I only put in for two units. The Quinault AHE bull tag and another. I don't want to hunt anywhere else. Hasn't kept me out of the elk and filling my tags.

Same thing for deer, but I only put in for one unit. If I don't draw a tag, fine, I can kill a deer anywhere.

I use my points for trophy hunts.

Don't overlook the Winston unit, Margaret and Toutle also but I have seen some enormous Bulls in the Winston. Good luck.

Dog Fish, that is basically what I have been doing for the last 12 years. I have the AHE also, and I haven't had a problem getting a cow tag that is a damage control hunt. I have been lucky with those. But I am starting to second guess my first option, the Margaret? And my second the Toutle? Obvioulsy about 4 thousand other people think they are the place to go. But after hunitng up in those areas for the last 12 years. I haven't seen or heard of any really good bulls in the last several years? So I am trying to see what other people think for the best chance at a really good bull is?

RVW I have hunted the winston, and yes there are good bulls in there. But that is a general season unit. And when you have 10 thousand guys runnig around out there it makes it really hard to find the good bulls.

I am jsut trying to make the best of my points. I have been patient this long I may as well get a good permit out of them. I still have my doubts of drawing the Margaret tag though? That has to be some sort of an inside thing?
Buck

Don't be surprised if you don't draw Margaret in your entire lifetime. It's not an "inside thing." It's nothing but luck if you draw. Do the math. In 2006 there were 23 permits available and 4,547 applications, many of which were people who had the maximum number of points possible, or close to it. That comes out to odds of 1 in 198, which of course means that by the odds, a person would likely draw the permit once in 198 years of applying. Odds got quite a bit better in '07. Permits increased to 35 and applications were down slightly at 4,341, for odds of 1 in 124. Still that's 124 years of applying before you're going to draw that permit. That's a long time, much longer than I'd be willing to wait. I gave up on bull permits a couple of years ago and now I put in for cow permits, so that I can fill the freezer more often. Of course I still put a good bull permit down for my #1 choice, but I'm not going to save points forever waiting for that permit that I probably would never see.

I may be totally off base here but those are the odds of you drawing with 1 point. If you have 12 points your odds become much better? Re did my high power math skills....1 in 92 chance with 12 points last year.

12 points is actually 12 squared (144) draws.

This year I will have 4 points = 16 draws from the bucket

So a guy with 12 points last year has a 1 in 24 chance or thereabouts. Decent odds if that is correct.

There is no way to calculate your exact odds unless you know how many points every applicant is using.

I understand the points do have an effect, but there's no way of calculating the odds based on points since none of that information is known. But I just assume, as I said, that many, if not most people applying for those permits have the maximum number of points possible, or close to it. Just say for instance that everybody applying for a particular permit have exactly the same number of points. In that case everybody would have the same odds. I know that's not the case with the Margaret permit, but it's probably safe to say that at least half of the applicants have been applying since the beginning of the point system and have not drawn, so they would all now have 12 points. With that many people with that many points, the odds of 1 individual person drawing are still astronomical, even if he has the maximum 12 points. I imagine people with 12 points may have odds of more like 1 in 70 to 1 in 80. Still not good. And, with the increased number of permits due to the plan to reduce the st helens elk herd, and the decrease in good, quality elk habitat in the unit, the unit is going downhill fast, and 10 years from now I'm sure it will not be worth the 22 points some of you will have saved up by then.

Interesting.....thanks for the info. Those multi season tags are sounding better and better.

Hairy Ape is actually very correct. I talked to the guy here in Oly at the game Dept. and asked why in the !!!! I haven't been able to draw. And he gave basically the same scenerio as above. At least half of the applicants are like me either stubborn or something and haven't drawn? As far as the Margaret goes, I am skeptical on weather or not it is worth the points as it is? Like I mentioned earlier, I haven't heard or seen any really good animals come out of there in several years? ( it seems like 8-10 years ago was the time to get those permits, and earlier?) Same goes with the Toutle, but I think the Toutle has a better chance of being a good producer? It is at least being logged once in a while and creating the habitat for the elk.
Buck

I've got 12 points going into this year and I'm just hoping I can finally draw a bull tag. I wish that they would go back to the one choice option for the special draws. Too many guys putting in for areas that they don't even hunt or really don't want to hunt in. I know of too many people who get drawn for some of these doe tags and don't even end up going. Drives me up the wall. Go back to one choice and then sell the leftover tags over the counter or do a left over drawing.

If your gonna hunt the west side dont look to far past the Naselle....the problem i have out there i cant get any bulls to come close enough to me...or even the Sequim unit..its not that hard to do your homework if your going in blind and scouting out there is EASY...this is Washington not to many places on the west side not to "waste 12 points" on were not New Mexico or Arizona....i can tell you a couple more places on the east side if you want for you 12 points...i have 9 right now for elk,13 yes 13 for moose and 13 for goat so i know how you feel...pm me if you want more info...BTW this all info for archery only!!Good Luck