A little testy there ain'tcha okie?

I didn't call you out on anything. If you had a great season... more power to you. You are definitely in the minority though.

The reason I asked how long you've been fishing it is because water levels don't usually make all that much difference bringing fish into the System. They come regardless. Plus, the longer you've fished it... the better able you are to compare it to seasons say 10+ years ago when we really had escapements of 8000 fish.

Ohhh and I've fished it enough times this season to form my own opinion of it.

The reason I respect Rob's opinion on the fish numbers is because in MY opinion, he's probably the best fisherman on that system. And if he's havin' trouble... then something's definitely up.

That ain't so hard to understand... is it?

Your standards are too high.

Crap. Just zinged myself again.

Easy there Nick...Mark was just trying to point out that the run is indeed low thus far this year. You've been doing a great job of putting people into steelhead this winter and no one is discounting that. I know how hard you work to get your customers into fish and can tell you that if there were 7800 fish in the system you'd be puttin a schwackin' to'em.

Many of the guys on this board have fished the Big S for many years over run forecasts right around what we're supposed to be seeing now and have experienced fishing a far sight better, myself included. Maybe they will come in May, maybe they won't...it's anybodies guess. I'm crossing my fingers that they'll come late, but I'm not going as far as holding my breath.

[quote=4Salt]How long have you been fishing the Skagit system Okie?

This is what I would say is calling somebody out on their opinion.. I posted that I have had a great year so far, and I get prodded with my knowledge of the actaul numbers of the season.. I guess a guy just cant have an opinion anymore...

Could be worse. Could have just been biatch-slapped by KK like I was. He's mean.

Who's sucking whom?

Oh, no you DIDN'T...

I give up okie... obviously you're much too defensive to be able to comprehend what I'm sayin' so think whatever you want.

I am a little defensive today, I am on my manstration cycle... Sorry for coming off rude its a misunderstanding.

Based on my admittedly limited experience I would say there are damn few steelheads in the Skagit. Yesterday about six excellent steelheaders pounded it. There was one solid hook up that came unbuttoned and the one Robbo crackered off. Robbo just short of a hook up- hint, when the float goes down AND when Stam keeps saying "Your floats down," that would be a good time to set the hook.

For the record, an 8,000 wild steelhead run on the Skagit ain't that hot. Just a few short years ago, 8,000 was only 80% of the 10,000 spawning escapment goal, the minimum number forecast required to have a CNR season. While decent fishing can be had when the run is 8,000, it's even better when the run is 12,000 or more, but I digress.

Another thing about the wild fish is that their timing into the upper river (i.e. upstream of the Dalles bridge) varies quite a bit more than their river entry timing. The Skagit isn't so small that the native run requires major rainstorms in order to enter freshwater. That's not to say that a rise in water level doesn't affect migration, but it appears to influence migration once the fish are in freshwater more than it affects their river entry. Extended low and cold water can cause the fish to lay lower in the river, with many not moving above the Dalles until after the season ends on April 30. But they will move eventually as only a very small % of the run spawns downstream of the Dalles.

KK,

Sorry about your broken Spey rod man. It seems to have made you surly. I'd happily loan you a couple spares than for you to have to resort to spin fishing.

Dave,

I'm not sure what the world's coming to if Stam has to remind Robbo that his bobber's down. I've got a complex Steelheader's Steelheader algorithm in Excel that I ran that through, and it just won't compute. Therefore the explanation isn't logical, rational, or of this world.

Sg

Salmo g is correct; at one time the escapement goal on the Skagit was 10,300.

That was established in 1984 and was based on the best "guesses" at the amount of habitat available for juvenile rearing. The question at the time was how much of the mainstem Skagit is really useable by the juvenile rearing. It was thought to be some what limited and time has demostrated that the amount of potential rearing habitat was even more limited than thought.

I think that the last time there were 8,000 or more wild spawners in the system was about 1990. I seem to remember a decent year or two of CnR fishing in the spring since then.

In regards to the 10,000 escapement that number has been exceeded 4 times in the last 35 years and each time those escapements produced fewer recruits than spawners. Close looks at the available data indicates that under the survival conditions seen since 1980 that carry capacity of the basin for steelhead is less than 10,000 spawners. Three different attempts at looking at Skagit specific spawner/recruit information pegged MSY forthe basin at between 4,000 and 4,500; below the current agreed to goal of 6,000.

In the past 30 years there has been a case or two when the bulk of the winter run did not show up in the Skagit above the Dallas and Sauk unitl after mid-April. So it may be possible the fish will yet show up however when looking at the indications of the wild returns through out Puget Sound it does not looking promising for the PS wild steelhead in general or the Skagit fish. It looks like marine survivals may have declined even further (is that possible?) though the exact strength of this year's runs will not be known for a couple more months.

Tight lines
Curt

I would say this is the case, based on other rivers this year, and recent happenings.

what do you expect Stam, I heard you guys were pulling fly fisherman hours.

Naw, we didn't work that hard.

9:30 a.m. is now considered early, or at least it felt early that particular morning!

It's plenty early for a Skagit float...

Being a steelheader and an eternal optomist (kind of redundant), I'd say there are a lot of fish down below the Dalles Bridge, especially with the acoustic tagging data that Rob told me about...

On a run size of nearly 8000 fish we should be experiencing 4-8 fish a day, every day...but we're averaging less than two fish per day. The fish are really bright and fresh, every one of 'em, even all the bucks...I hope they're just late due to the late winter and very cold water...

Fish on...

Todd