The day before the Closure of the Kenai the Chinook count took a big jump, at least compared to previous numbers posted. Yesterday 136 fish showed up, almost double the previous one day high and triple the average or more for the season. Indications are that the run was 2 weeks late. Hooligans which normally show up in mid may are just now filling up the Kenai and the Kasilof with several guides and fishermen reporting them as a nuisance while fishing... as snagging them means having to reel in and reset.

The Anchor River also saw a big jump to 225 and a total of 1296 fish. This is not conclusive proof that the fish are still coming, but a heartening jump to give us hope of a better June and possible reopening if the numbers warrant the reopen of the Kenai.

Historically most of the fish have come in after the 4th of June and big jumps have been recorded from the 4th and 5th to the 10th in most years. Still numbers are extremely low. The lowest since 1987 when 0 fish have come through the sonar up until the 4th of June when they started to come in ......
http://www.examiner.com/x-44691-Kenai-Peninsula-Fishing-Examiner~y2010m6d5-Kenai-and-Anchor-River-Chinook-counts-jump

In oregon with news like this they would triple the limits..

I think you forgot to the most important part of the "story"... the part that establishes credibility.

Jim Dicken
Headquartered at Funny Moose Lodge
www.funnymoose.com


Now the real skinny.

Yes 1987 was one of the better runs on record... BUT....

The only reason 1987 showed no fish until June 4 was because the sonar project was in its infancy and the crew did not have it fully operational until June 4. The front-end counts were simply truncated from the database. A similar thing happened twenty years later in 2007.... missed the first four days of counting due to technical difficulties of deploying the sonar gear in suboptimal water conditions.

And to characterize a daily count of 165 on June 4 as some kind of exceptional day for what has been an otherwise dismal season might give folks hope... BUT....

The historic average for June 4 passage is 370 fish... more than twice as many kings!

And finally the biggest reason the counts "spike" between June 4 and 10 is because that's typically when large numbers of sockeye bound for the Russian River pass thru the lower Kenai, thus inflating the chinook sonar estimate. This has been particularly pronounced in the past decade due to VERY strong returns of early run Russian River reds.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed like every one else, but that author was clearly making mountains out of mole hills purely out of desperate optimism.

The more money involved the faster the science goes out the window..

Counts on the Kenai Continue to Climb

The Kenai River count continues to increase in numbers. 266 fish which is almost double the previous high of 135 yesterday. It appears that the run is late, but this is still well below normal numbers for this time of year. It will take steadily increasing numbers for the fishing restrictions to be lifted before June 30 closure dates. A total of 1202 fish have reached the sonar on the Kenai river so far this year.

The Kenai River above the Soldotna Bridge is closed until July
http://www.examiner.com/x-44691-Kenai-Peninsula-Fishing-Examiner~y2010m6d6-Counts-on-the-Kenai-Continue-to-Climg