Commercial numbers are up and QIN by openings. Do the math but the fish are late or they blew the hell out of the forecast. The next set of numbers will tell the story but Chinook are really looking bad.

http://wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/commercial/salmon/landings.html

From another thread but it is valid here as some ask why / how this season happened.

"I guess we need to argue for a sport chum season at the next NoF. "

Backing up a bit but if you want to have a effect on the next NOF you should have started working on it the minute the schedule for this years NT nets went out as I did, in fact I started last November. NOF is a Dog & Pony show with the basic outcome predetermined. Chum on the table? Christ RW said no directed harvest on Chum the entire meeting. In fact only option 3 & 4 no changes. In comes Phil then lunch AND wella changes. ( ain't safe to do lunch evidently ) Out of the meeting to the QIN goes WDFW and more changes ( with out public knowledge ) AND now directed harvest on Chum.

So if you want to have a cause and effect on the next years NOF, START NOW! Go after the commission & Phil Anderson & Jim Scott no holds barred about how R-6 harvest is managed & STAY ON THEM. RW and his staff are a great bunch of folks individually BUT FOLLOW DIRECTION. So don't kill the messenger but go after Phil Anderson & Jim Scott who set direction and start with that commission that is sound a sleep at the wheel and worthless as tits on a bore hog!

Cowboy numbers can be a bit deceiving on the Chehalis chinook piece as they only reflect kept hatchery fish. The QIN's numbers are a better indicator of run strength as they kept all comers. My guess is that the run comes up short of forecast.

WDFW should require reporting of all cowboy encounters, and these should be posted by species, retained or not. Will definitely push for this next year.

but Chinook are really looking bad.

OK... you're probably right about the run coming up short, RG

Co-managers budgeted nearly 3000 Chehalis kings apiece to die in this years fisheries.

Unless the rec catch cards eventually show otherwise, it doesn't look like we're gonna come anywhere close on the NT share.

My boat stats show 23% chinook encounters and 77% coho where the fish was on long enough to make a positive ID. The vast majority of the kings were released.... virtually every coho was bonked.

No disagreement Francis but both Chinook / Chum encountered and released from the NT nets should be reported. Then we can argue mortality as you and I always do BUT then and only then will the true impact of the non treaty net harvest become clear.

Last year, I released 15 Chinook......this year NO CHINOOK have been caught by others in my boat or myself. In the area of the Chehalis I fish, very few Chinook have been caught.....I'd say numbers are waaaaaaaaaay down.

Tuesday.......above Monty....muddy water and lot's of "stuff" coming down from the Satsop.

I know where to go, just that there has been LOT's of boats there.....I'll wait.....maybe they'll stay up there and leave the area I like to fish, alone..........I think not !!!!!!!

Lots of effort going into the final stretch... nets strung every which way across the muddy tidal reach adjacent to the bluff immediately east of the Aberdeen Gateway.

Saw a sport boat out there trying desperately to navigate his way around that labyrinth of corklines.

Relief is in sight... just a few more days for a decent window for fish passage.

I got a head ache.Good luck,
SZ

This post is an attempt to answer the question about how the season is going. Web site catch data for harvest through Oct 14 is compared to the final model retention predictions through Oct 14. The final model is the North of Falcon model after it was updated for more gill net days and tribal harvest. Comparisons between the model and actual are complicated due to the issues of hatchery/wild, retention/release mortality, and Chehalis fish/Humptulips fish.

The following is a comparison for the Cowboys through October 14:
Area 2C
Actual Chinook catch was 1,139 or 158% of the model.
Actual Coho catch was 393 or 179% of the model.
Actual Chum catch was 44 or 275% of the model.

In area 2A/2D it is more complicated in that retention is for hatchery Chinook, all Coho, and no Chum. The expected harvest can be extracted from the model and compared to actual harvest as follows:
Actual Chinook catch was 70 or 48% of the model.
Actual Coho catch was 6,829 or 41% of the model.
Actual Chum catch was 0 or 100% of the model.

Chum mortality in 2A/2D is for release mortality which is conveniently not recorded.

Overall the Cowboys should harvest more Chinook than the model predicted. For Coho most come from 2A/2D and it looks like the total will be far short of the model. Only 16 Chum were modeled and 44 were harvested so they are ahead on Chum.

So how are the Quinaults doing relative to the North of Falcon final model? The web site data and model data through October 6 yield the following comparisons:

Area 2C and Humptulips River
Chinook harvest was 498 fish or 71% of the model.
Coho harvest was 1,541 fish or 70% of the model.
Chum harvest was 139 fish or 3,475% of the model.

Area 2A/2D
Chinook harvest ws 1,732 or 54% of the model.
Coho harvest was 10,106 or 92% of the model.
Chum harvest was 1,031 or 14,728% of the model.

So far it looks like the Chinook will come up short and the Coho could be near target with the run peak still to be reported.

Thanks for the facts, SB! Glad someone is paying attention.

Sounds like another failure to meet harvest objectives as planned.

In 2C it looks like they either got too much time... OR the runs showed up bigger than expected.

In 2A/2D it looks like they didn't get enough time... OR the runs have not materialized as expected.

You be the judge.

Was that me? I was trolling upsteam of Lakeside toward Cossi. Had a driftnetter almost back into my skiff as I was almost pegged to the East shoreline? Nothing for me or my underemplyed neighbor.

Took a tour in the boat to do some net video. Half way through incoming and the QIN nets were dragging them in decent amounts. Now this is prime time so don't know for sure but from S Monte to the Port all were picking nets. Bright Chum / also striped upstream, Coho total chrome, also some Chinook. My guess is the Coho numbers will be much higher than the last reporting. Oh yes PGH to S. Monte 42 QIN nets.

Little edit: Camera guy went down and shot some more vid and one boat came in loaded to the gunnel's, so they landed on em today to be sure.

Gota get Region 6 off the "fixed days"....when its clear that the numbers have exceeded "the model numbers". Quite apparent to many that the "model has some major problems".

Poor chum.........over fished......and NT get to fish extra days.......grrrrrrrrrrr

42 nets???!!! Man, those guys sure know how to fish.

Even I'll concede that 7 rods is no match against 42 nets!

Feasting on last weeks coho collars... steamed w/ black bean garlic paste green onions and fresh broccoli. The rest of the fish just went into the dry brine for the smoker this weekend.

Hoping to replenish with chromers this weekend if LMWS allows it. Her dedicated (belated) b'day weekend w/ dad and she's bringing friends from Issaquah. We're fishing ONLY if the weather is nice.

River is in good shape but A LOT of debris so be careful. QIN come out today so things should pick up but slowly as we suffer the NT nets over the next few days.

Just to clear the air our argument is not the QIN nets. If yours is get over it because it is court mandated and end of discussion. Now our half, that is another thing and that is the argument to be sure. The manner R-6 did this years NT netting schedule is duplistic at best to down right dishonest. That is where the problem is AND their superiors in Olympia who set direction. Just wanted make that clear.

The NT nets get to be movie stars next. I just love technology and U Tubers!




Edit: November QIN Periods and listed are the periods and the number of days in that period they will fish. I don't know yet which days they will choose to fish during these weeks.

Nov. 11 - 17 3 days .
Nov. 18 - 24 5 days

Heard that 1 tribal guy had over 12,000 lbs these past 4 days...straight from the horses mouth.

I guess anything's possible but they are notoriously inaccurate when it comes to fish numbers.

Nothing in the morning and the water got dirty. So went and did the video of NT nets came back to do the incoming tide. Went 3 for 6 and found them on incoming bunched up, then zippo.

Little edit: The fish are moving WITH the incoming tide and few are holding off the side on out going. Now by moving I mean they are coming out of the bay almost entirely on the incoming, just a steady idle up the river and not a all out race as flows and timing do not get that out of them. The hens we got were at least 3 to 4 weeks from spawning judging by the egg development and all had scales flying. Simply put if your in the S. Monte down and you find a bunch stay on them or if they book by then move and get in front of them but stay with them.

Oh almost forgot. For whatever the reason the Chum and Coho are traveling tight together, much more than usual. Find one you will find the other.