i was wondering if all the rain we been having will help the smolt get out maybe give us a good run return in a few years

A record run of outgoing smolt went by my place this year. Cooler temps, higher flows, lower visibility....I'm sure contribute to a higher survival rate.
Now we'll have to wait and see if they make it back.
Glad I'm not a fish.

Larryb,

High and turbid spring flows correlate with good smolt outmigrations. Whether or not that results in larger subsequent adult runs depends on the other part of the survival equation called marine survival. Haven't heard what this year's early marine conditions are looking like yet.

Sg

A healthy return of adults is the result of good conditions throughout their life cycle. That includes high survival in the redds, the tribs, the mainstem, the estuary, and the ocean. Low survival at any one of these stages means a low return of adults. Even great ocean conditions can't resurrect dead fish.

Fortunately it does appear the conditions on the mainstem Columbia are helping the outmigration. It is certainly alot better than anticipated given the low water conditions earlier in the year.

Salmo,

How's this years coho return looking? I just remember not catching hardly any shakers last year...that can't be good.

The biggest factor for coho is coastal upwelling. But as you will see in this vid, upwelling can be a mixed blessing/curse...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh5Ev8VEbZ0

Another interesting link outlining the many variables that go into a coastal run-size forecast:

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm

Fshwithnoeyes,

Coho are forecasted at well below last year's large run. Can't recall the specifics.

Sg

Hypoxia, IMHO, is the result of so many nutrients and the continued overharvest in the estuaries. Not talking about one area like the Canal only. But this is the problem child in my home waters.

Tacoma Public Utilities trucks it's sludge to be dumped in the greater canal drainage as fertlilizer for farms. Only thing is there are only a few farming families in the area.
This is a ruse to promote fiber growth on timberland. Sure they blame the older septic systems. But how many tons of treated sludge does this drainage really need?

I feel the anchovies have taken over the lesser desirable lower Canal.
Perhaps they can withstand the lower O-2 levels.

CR coho forecast is about 1/3 of last year.... ~350K or so compared to 1.1M last year.

Marine survival was forescast to be slightly lower or well below average in many parts of the PAC NW. However, it was a forecast. Since these forecasts were made, the 2010 marine conditions have changed. We have gone from a relatively strong El Nino condition (higher than average sea surface temps at the equator) to neutral conditions (more like average sea surface temps at the equator) and the trend is still lower temps.

In addition, north and east Pacific ocean (our coast) sea surface temperatures began to drop below normal right in the middle of our 2010 smolt outmigration season (May-June). And temps are continuing to drop. This bodes well for the 2011 return of coho and pinks, for example.

Projections of sea surface temperature conditions (critically important to our weather patterns here in the PAC NW) from most models show continued lower than average temps or La Nina conditions through the remainder of 2010 and into 2011. We could have a wild winter coming, particularly compared to the mild winter we just experienced.

Many managers are beginning to think the coho returns, for example, might do better than forecasted now that marine conditions have shifted to become more favorable for stocks in our part of the globe. We shall see.