Fishing restriction or even fishing elimination are not likely to recover PS Chinook. The current recovery paradigm is broken and will not achieve recovery. The only remaining question is whether after the next 5 year status review due in 2021 or the 2026 review the ESA status of PS Chinook will be upgraded from threatened to endangered.

Perhaps there is no better indication of the habitat recovery failure than the Stillaguamish summer Chinook. For the 20 year period (1990 to 2009) the average escapement (NOR and wild brood stock HOR) was 1,500 spawners. Those spawners on produced on the average only 933s NOR the next generation; less than 2 recruits for every spawners. From memory I think there were only 3 years that recruits/spawner exceeded 1.0 with the largest about 1.25 recruits per spawner. Keep in mind since that 20 period of data the Oso slide has happen further degrading the spawning habitats.

Slide 19 (Mid-Hood Canal) may be the most alarming in regards to future marine water mixed stock fisheries. While it appears that still is not co-manager/NMFS on allowable exploitation rates the Slide says NMFS recommended rate is 5%. Most years a 12% mid-Hood Canal has been the most constrain stock. If that nearly 60% reduction in allowable exploitation were to come to past it will be the death nail several mixed stock fisheries.

Depressing but not unexpected news.

Curt