So folks can compare apples to apples on this I thought I would add this. The Chehalis hatchery & wild combined forecast is 69,830 with wild only 43,478. So using the logic put forth in Willapa the Chehalis Coho runsize on wild Coho would increase to 86,956 at the bottom range ( nearly double ) to a 430% high end increase for a run size of 186,955. Coho H & W combined the high end is 300,269.

Now if you use Grays Harbor Aggregate as is used in Willapa for Coho ( H & W ) the logic gets mind blowing. Preseason Coho forecast for all Grays Harbor was 84,525 so using the Willapa logic at the low end doubling would be 169,050 and the high end 363,457. You buy these numbers I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell ya!

This is a classic example of why it is not a good idea to manipulate the models to enable harvest be it rec, NT commercial or tribal. What is known is the runs came in early in Willapa in substantial numbers but just how many fish is a big question. I have been told the dam counts have the Columbia doing 20% or so above expectations which is good but the Columbia has the ability to count the fish. What Mr. Herring is doing in Willapa is simply blatant manipulation of the model to allow expanded commercial harvest utilizing data that has consistently been wrong, in fact not even close to accurately forecasting runs and harvest impacts.

In the end it will be the fish that pay the bill for this foray into the world of stupid.




Edited by Rivrguy (09/27/20 11:57 AM)
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Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in