I'm not into gambling, so I don't make bets. However I'll take a SWAG (scientific wild azz guess) that we can be sure the entire $400 million is spent. I'll take another SWAG that the resultant increase in naturally produced ESA Chinook and steelhead is not statistically different from zero.

Some of the reasons are that Chinook seldom spawn in stream reaches upstream from culvert locations because culverts are used on streams of a size smaller than generally used by Chinook. It is true, however, that juvenile Chinook may enter and use small streams for rearing and travel upstream of culvert locations, but we're talking about a very small proportion of the entire juvenile Chinook population. Improved passage at culvert sites may attract some spawning steelhead, however steelhead are not limited by spawning area. Freshwater carrying capacity is limited by juvenile rearing area, which could include stream reaches upstream from culvert locations, but these often include stream reaches that go dry in the summer and so account for a very small amount of the total juvenile rearing habitat.