Ah guys the harvest model is based on past commercial harvest by week or regulation ( Rec ). The numbers imputed to the harvest model are the agreed to forecast for run size numbers between the co managers.

What the harvest model does NOT reflect is wet falls which brings fish upstream early like this year or dry falls which they stack up and come in later. One very dry year I recall we did not get major movement for Coho until the 3rd week of November.

As to runsize guesses one is seldom right mid way for the reasons outlined. Combined NT and QIN are not that far off except for Chinook and again it rained early which messes with trying to get a flavor for things. NT's were up one week way down next then rain and back up again.

Always remember if fishing the Chehalis the Hatchery fish are proportionally way down because they are mixed with the upper Chehalis fish. Need to be on the Satsop to break the ratio to favorable. The Skook Mit fish are a later returning fish so Sept & Oct will have few marketed fish above Fuller Hill and backwards in H / W mix on the Chehalis as it is just 300k Coho smolt released in the upper basin.