PNWBestLife-
Nice write-up!

To add a bit; for the most recent five years of data (2016 to 2020) average adult Chinook harvest in the Skykomish was 405 (nearly as many jacks caught).

You are correct the majority of the Souther US (SUS) catch is by the recreational fishery. Most recent estimate (2009 - 2015) was that 87.8% of the SUS total was by recreational fleet.

The four fisheries that hit the Skykomish stock the harvest (only have hard data for the Skykomish as the managers only have code wire tag (CWT) information from the Skykomish hatchery program (using local stock) and there isn't a hatchery program on the Snoqualmie side thus the Skykomish info is used as a stand in for the Snoqualmie.

Accord to the models MA 7, MA 9 and MA 9 summer fisheries and the in-river fishery have the largest impacts on the Skykomish stock. To achieve that 20% overall impact level all 3 of those marine had cuts to their summer quotas with both MA 9 and MA 10 taking about 10%, MA 7 was also reduced but don't recall how much. The reductions in MA 9 and Ma 10 were roughly 400 fish each.

The ocean option being the high option and an increase in the MA 7 over last year had a smaller impact on the over-all harvest/impact rate.

Finally while the 2019 escapement was a dominate factor in this year run (the 4 year old fish) do not look for a rapid bounce back. The most recent run reconstruction (2000-2011) should for 7 of the 12 years the number of recruits (without fishing the number of adults produced) produced by an escapement (spawner (R/S) was less than 1.0. That is the spawners were not replacing themselves (run not rebuilding).

CM -
The irony of the Skykomish/Snohomish situation is that in terms of NOR production outside of the Skagit basin the Skykomish is the second most productive of the PS systems (the Cedar is slightly better).

With the continuing failure of recovery efforts in PS the future PS Chinook fishing will become more challenging not easier.

Curt