Oh for fvck sake, there is always a "best available information" at any given time. Some times it isn't a lot, and some times some or all of it is later found to be wrong. But on any given day there is always some "best available information."

You're right, mortality will only soar to the extent that the virus is lethal. I guess I was thinking that if it isn't lethal to a significant degree, then it wouldn't amount to much of a pandemic.