Speaking of cut down to the wire....this is exactly the reason why escapement goals can be rather artificial. A host of environmental factors affect the number of fish that would be considered sustainable for a given river. The data requirements to get good numbers are also high and likely beyond the means (funding wise) for WDFW for many rivers.

More illustrative is a look at the Canadian experience. Canada went 100% C&R of native steelhead in the 1980s (phased in between 1980 and 1987). BC found this necessary because of dwindling wild runs which approached crisis levels at several streams in the early 80s. And BC has fewer recreational anglers, lower total population (particularly compared to land mass), lower degree of development, agriculture, and logging; and more streams then we do.

During good years (i.e. good ocean conditions, no flooding, moderate temperatures) there is likely a harvestable surplus of wild fish in many streams, but on average, I would submit that the total fish catching capacity of recreational anglers in the state exceeds the present average reproductive capacity of our streams from year to year. Canada found it necessary to do it and they have far fewer problems and people then we do.