well, i checked out the stats and noticed a couple interesting things (for the quillayute). one is that since harvest has been reduced recently, escapement has been consistently higher than any other time during the 20 year period they posted. while there was a bump in the mid-80's, it wasn't as high or as consistent as the current trend with reduced harvest. seems that if we reduce harvest even further, we might be able to get a better handle on the carrying capacity of the quillayute which might help the state biologists come up with better models for managing wild steelhead (i know, it's a pipe dream). also, full c&r will probably help the earliest returning natives, which once made up a large portion of the entire run (some figures from pre-hatchery catch data put the figure around 35%). while harvesting the hatchery fish that return early, releasing the few remaining natives will hopefully add up and create additional opportunities for fishermen.

and as others have stated, most of these numbers are educated guesses.