CFM,

Fanning some flames today, eh?

I agree that the steelhead production emphasis is likely to change in the future, in part at WDFW's preference to allocate hatchery poundage differently than other parties. However, I respectfully disagree that the Cowlitz settlement agreement has anything to do with the present showing of early winter steelhead returning to the Cowlitz River. As you mentioned, the agreement is dated August 2000, but it is not yet in effect, and won't be until FERC issues the new project license. Conversely, the current return of early winters are from smolts released in 2001, from broodstock in 2000, and would have been planned for in WDFW's Future Brood Document in 1999. Did any planning or production changes get made that would influence the return this season?

It seems that a more likely explanation is that out of the scheduled smolt release, lower than usual smolt to adult survival occurred. There is plenty of precedent for poor hatchery smolt survival on the Cowlitz, even when other hatchery returns are good.

While changes are in store for the Cowlitz River in the future, Tacoma's steelhead mitigation liability remains the same as in the past. I cannot quote you the line in the agreement specifying it, I think it's in the appendices, but 12,000 steelhead, at estimated smolt to adult survival rates in the late 60s, remains the goal. That can be from several sources: recovered wild steelhead, hatchery winter runs, and hatchery summer runs. The only ESA restriction that I recall is that early winters - because of their large Chambers Creek genetic component - and Skamania summer runs cannot be passed upstream of the dams to the upper watershed for natural production.

It seems to me that your complaint - poor fishing yesterday - is likely the result of the Cowlitz River's greatest weakness. It has for three decades been wholly dependent on hatchery runs with very inconsistent smolt to adult survival rates, independent of ocean survival. The dependence on a hatchery system that releases millions of diseased smolts that probably die before reaching Astoria at the mouth of the Columbia can never be a good thing for the Cowlitz, let alone good for us as anglers. A more diverse fish population and facilities that produce healthier hatchery smolts should do more to improve fishing in the future than continued reliance on over-production of low quality smolts in hopes of getting enough survivors to constitute a fishery.

Don't worry. I'm not going to try to change you mind about this or anything else. I know you better than that!

Sincerely,

Salmo g.