Cowlitzfisherman-
I have little expertise on ocean survival conditions or on most other areas for that matter. My limited knowledge is that various ocean conditions such as El Nino have been around for 1000s of years. As the ocean warms in El Nino the usable portion of the North Pacific for steelhead contracts (warmer water temperatures limit how far south the fish can forage etc). In addition to have less "pasture" the changing temperatures favors different species cause both forage and prey species abundances to vary. Bottom line generally for our steelhead survival goes down meaning poorer fishing in our rivers (for both hatchery and wild fish).

These types of cyclic events as well as disaster such as the Mount Saint Helens eruption have been occurring forever. The fish have developed life strategies to sucessfully deal with these situations - the fact that they are here confirms that they have been successful. Generally the large disasters such as Saint Helens or forest fires occur in relatively small geographic areas (affect just a basin or two). Thus when one population is affected other nearby ones aren't which provide refugia for the species.

The problem is that these natural processes are occurring over relative long time frames (decades to centuries) while we generally look at things in much shorter periods. Comparing this year to last years or for us longer term anglers (old farts) how today compares to the good old days a couple decades ago. Our prespectives aren't the same as Mother Natures.

Of course the larger issue is the nature of the disasters of which I spoke. While it is true that they tend to localized rather than global such as the dinosaurs asteroid we as the human species have been attacking our streams at a global level. Most of our streams are being confined, damed, logged, filled, etc. This of course means that when these poor survival conditions cycle around (El nino) our alternations of the habitat reduce the probability that the fish will have safe or productive refugia.

It appears that we are testing the resilency of the populations to a level near seen before. I for one am uncomfortable with this form of Russian Roulette on a resource that I care deeply about.

Tight lines
Smalma