Interesting discussion, it does make me wonder just what proportion of steelheaders are truly C&R. I think Plunker and salmonbelly hit on the head; the lack of winter brats has to have an effect on the number of natives being whacked. I think it also brings to light the notion that in order to have a truly successful C&R fishery, you have to have hatchery fish. Without them, folks will either pressure for more and longer native keep seasons, or will quit fishing. The Canadians found this to be the case in the first few years of native release in BC.
Other thoughts: In most Puget Sound and western WA streams (all but the Oly P.) folks are geared toward early brat seasons and late native seasons. During the brat show you have lots of folks fishing, catching, and bonking hatchery fish. Come March, the show thins out considerably, and I find myself fishing with an entirely different set of people. Maybe I'm just used to it, but it seems conducive to switching mentalities.
On the Peninsula, however, you have native runs that begin much earlier, and its my impression that there is not near as much temporal separation between runs so you get bonkers and releasers out at the same time. I also get the impression though, that like in Puget Sound basins, the number of C&R anglers increases dramatically as you get past mid-February (is this true?)
It would be nice to get creel data by month to compare keep/release trends over the course of a season and over a number of years to compare years where hatchery runs are large vs. lean. I hope the department doesn't use the data that Smalma cited to determine the will of the people. Can't help but think that the thin brat year has something to do with native harvest.