Smalma,
one way to deal with "imperfect" pre-season forecasts is to simply set our sights lower than an MSH harvest plan. For an "ideal" case (average productivity) the target MSH harvest rate is ~40% of the total run size. If the target harvest impact was lowered to something like 10%, it would incorporate a lot more wiggle room than currently exists. Such an approach would have avoided the overfishing that occured on the Hoh last winter/spring.

With regard to "overescapement", it apparently did no harm to salmonids for something like 2-3 million years. The overescapement concept is only valid in the MSH worldview -- it's only a "problem" if you equate optimal management success with the maximum number of fish harvested. For wild steelhead that perspective simply doesn't hold up in any economic or scientific assessment I've seen, and I doubt it would hold up to a popular vote of steelhead anglers or the general public.

Lots of spawners is probably a good thing for many reasons. One of the key components of a healthy wild fish population is its diversity, where there are lots of fish using lots of different habitat. As others have noted on this board, diverse habitats force a diversity in the behaviors of salmonids through natural selection. The MSH approach is all about numbers, giving zero regard for how natural variability (in climate, stream and ocean habitat) influences the evolution of diversity in wild animal populations. MSH would be a great idea if it worked, but it simply doesn't account for the complexity of the real world.

It seems to me that if we don't take significant steps in a more positive direction soon the cliff is going to crumble beneath our feet. There is some good news around the region about real habitat restoration and at least some very promising talk about significant hatchery reforms. I know that a lot of the folks that read and write on these pages are already on board and are helping it happen, but there is plenty more room for people to get involved ...there are already mountains of papers written about the causes for the declines. The real mystery in all this has to do with why fish-advocates (sports, tribal and commercial) fail to speak with a single loud voice to get our local, state, and federal governments (they represent "we the people", right?) to do the right thing.