Bob -
Have to agree that blaming the recent poor steelhead returns in much of Puget Sound and lower BC appears to be a cope out. However if not poor marine conditions then what is the root casue.

Consider the following information from the Snohomish system. In the later half of the 1990s the return of wild steelhead to the system has been only a third of what it was in the 1980s. This is in spite of escapements that had been more or less constant at about the escapement goal of 6,500. Recent returns from those escapements has been less than 3,000 fish.

At the same time the return of the hatchery winter steelhead from the Snohomish has fallen about the same. The smolt plants have remained relatively constant. During the 1980s the average catch (sport + tribal) of hatchery fish in the system was about 12,500 fish a year. In the late 1990s the catch fell to only 4,300 fish a year.

Whatever has happened to the Snohomish winter steelhead seems to be affect both the hatchery and wild fish. It must be occurring at or after the smolt stage.

Also consider the situation with summer steelhead in the same basin (Snohomish). Again the hatchery program has been relatively constant. The average annual catch of summer fish in the 1980s was 3,900 fish. In the late 1990s it was 3,800. In addition the wild summer population has appeared to have remained constant or increased during the 1990s (based on Sunset Falls counts and spawning surveys on the South Fork Tolt).

Since the summer and winter smolt migrate from the system at the same time it is hard to image something (a predator) that would be impacting winter smolts and not the summer fish. Therefore it seems likely that whatever is hammering the winter fish is outside of the river and its estuary. We do know that the summer and winter steelhead migrate through the ocean at different times and places.

While my knoweldge is limited after considerable thought I have been forced to conclude that the ocean is less than a constant environment and the summer fish going to areas with better survival conditions than the winter fish. Since the Washington coast fish and the West side of Vancouver Island steelhead have continued to survival at high levels while the Puget Sound fish and those on the East side of Vancouver are doing very poorly it would also appear that nor only where the fish are going to feed but the timing of when they go are very important.

Am I missing something?

Tight lines
Smalma