Todd --
Regarding that current carrying capacity belowing lower than the escapement goal.

Remember that the 6,500 escapement was set as an attempt to estimate the MSY escapement level under AVERAGE environmental conditions. In addition when any assumptions were needed to make that estimate managers choice values such that any errors would be in favor of the fish. Meaning that the goal of 6,500 likely is substantially above MSY levels at average conditions. When survival conditions for steelhead are well below average such as we are currently experiencing both the MSY and carrying capacity levels are greatly reduced. Since for the lass 5 years or so escapements ranging form 5,000 t0 7,000 fish are producing runs of less than 3,000 the population must be every near to capacity (ignoring harvest for the moment).

Another way of looking at this aspect of population dynamcis is to consider a hypothical population that has smolt carrying capacity of say 100,000 smolts. Studies have shown that we would expect to see a 15% smolt to adult survival under average conditions. Thus at capacity we would expect to see a wild run size of 15,000 adults (under average conditions). Such a population might have a MSY escapement level of say 7,000 fish.

Let's look at what happens under very poor survival conditions - say a smolt to adult survival of only 3%. In this case the population at capacity would produce a run of only 3,000 adults. This is the type of situation I believe we currently are seeing on the Snohomish. Of course if conditions remain constant for another few years and the returns stay constant at the 3,000 fish level we'll know with certainly that we are at capacity for these conditions. I for hope that things turn around before that point.

Also remember that we are talking winter steelhead here. The steelhead using the habitat above Sunset Falls are summer fish - no steelhead truck after mid-December of so.

Regarding the nutrients from steelhead carcasses. Remember that unlike slamon many of the steelhead do not die immediately after spawning so there isn't near as much nutrient enhancement from steelhead. Much of the mortality of the steelhead seems to occur after they drift downstream to the ocean.

If the placement of salmon carcasses was likely to tip the balance in the favor of steelhead survival then the Snohomish steelhead should be doing well. A local sports group has been placing 5,000 to 10,000 coho carcasses in the system. In addition I quickly reviewed the average wild salmon escapement for the basin and using typical average size for the returning adults an average of more than 4,000,000 pounds of salmon have been spawning in the system.

As WDFW (then Department of Wildlife) was developing their escapement sitting methods in the early 1980s the bios looked at the steelhead parr densities in a number of habitats thought to be "fully" seeded. What was found was the a stream's gradient and flow were important factors in the amount of parr that they could support. Higher gradient streams support more fish than flat sections and medium size water supported higher density of parr than larger water. The Quillayute has more of those kinds of habitats that just about any other steelhead streams around - which was what I meant about near ideal habitat.

Tight lines
Smalma