Beezer--
You are correct in that the potential capacity for smolt production on the Snohomish has not changed much. However the degree to which that potential is realized is dependent on the survival conditions that the offspring of spawning steelhead find.

In the example I used above when the marine survival of the smolts fell to the low level of 3% we were getting only 3,000 adults back to the system. This is not enough to fill all the potential rearing habitat so the fry tend to use the best habitat but end up producing a smolt production less than 100,000 which produces adult return of less than 3,000. If those survival conditions persist eventually the population will reach equalibrium at a low level of less than 3,000 - this is the carry capacity at that low survival conditions.

The potential capacity has not changed it just that survival conditions do not allow the population to take full advantage of that potential.

It remains unclear to me whether the current returns to the Snohomish (around 3,000) are at equilibrium or they will continue to decline if the recent survival conditions continue. Continue to have my fingers crossed that not only has the population crash stablized but that the survival conditions will improve in the coming years.

Hope that helps - if not I'll try again.

Tight lines
Smalma