We went thru this same thing with early run Kenai "spring" kings in 2002.... ADFG just kept saying it's too early to tell, they're probably just a week late. Historic data said otherwise... all-time worst entry pattern of kings since record-keeping began. Ended up being so bad that total run size fell short of escapement goals.

My guess is the run is much smaller than predicted. Bonneville counts have really done a major backslide in the past few days.... the guys predicting imminent closure are probably right on.