Y'all can look over your shoulders for black helicopters if you want, but the process is pretty well thought out. I wen't to some of the Commission meetings last year, and it was pretty interesting. They have a pretty sophisticated model for how the run will shape up based on how many fish come by at a given time. But, as we all know, the fish can be a bit early, or a bit late , and that will throw any model off.

The commercials' seasons are targeted into time frames that are intended to reduce impact on the most vulnerable runs, in order to maximise the hatchery fish caught per wild wish (or steelhead) handled. Or, that's the goal, anyway. March is apparently one of the better times for that, so they get fish earlier in the season.

All the fishing groups are constrained by the overall goal of the Compact, which I believe is to kill no more than 2% of the wild run. They assume that roughly 25 to 30% of netted and released fish will die, assuming tangle nets and revival tanks, and 10to 18% of sport caught and released fish will die.

During the season, the numbers caught and crossing the dam are masured. They have a good idea of the ratio of hatchery fish to wild fish is, because they can measure at the dams. Bsed on the catch surveys and these numbers, they can estimate how many fish are handled and released. Knowing this, they can calculate pretty well how many wild fish have died. When the total number of estimated dead wild fish is 2% of the predictedreturn, the seasons close.

Now, my opinion is, this is a good approach, because it incents all of us, at least those that can think, to be smarter about our handling of wild fish, so that these impact percentages come down. The commercials have the most room for improvement, and the most to gain from making those improvements. Unfortunately, I haven't seen them get this yet... This could happen with education.

Anyway, that's how it works.