Here is the latest (12/17) revision of the forecast:


2004 Returns and 2005 Forecasts for ImportantColumbia River Salmon Stocks
Stock 2004 Forecast 2004 Return 2005 Forecast Author/Method/Notes
Upriver spring chinook (through May 31) 360,700 193,400 -------- 1/
Upriver spring chinook (through June 15) 221,600 254,100 2/
Sockeye 80,654 124,000 70,700 3/
Wenatchee 27,500 30,900 30,400
Okanogan 53,000 93,000 40,300
Snake River sockeye 154 120 66 4/
Willamette spring chinook 109,400 143,700 116,900 5/
Snake River spring/summer chinook 200,700 125,200 128,100 6/
Snake River Wild spring/summer chinook 46,200 32,900 23,400 7/
Snake River hatchery spring/summer chinook 154,500 92,300 104,700 8/
Upper Columbia spring chinook 28,200 18,800 47,200 9/
Upper Columbia Wild spring chinook 3,400 3,100 6,200 10/
Upper Columbia summer chinook 69,100 65,200 62,400 11/
Wild winter steelhead 32,200 33,900 27,000 12/

Note: Methods below are for 2005 forecasts only.

1/ WDFW. Pettit/Harlan. Cohort relationships.
2/ New method and accountability for Upriver spring chinook. Upriver spring chinook are now defined as fish passing Bonneville Dam from January 1 through June 15 and includes Snake River summer chinook. Forecast developed by cohort relationships and provided by TAC.
3/ CRITFC. Fryer. Cohort relationships. Wenatchee and Okanogan estimates based on stock specific cohort relationships.
4/ IDFG/TAC. Smolt to adult survival.
5/ ODFW. C. Melcher. Cohort relationships.
6/ TAC. By addition (see footnote 7 & 8).
7/ TAC. Lower Granite age-specific estimates expanded to river mouth (IDFG – Marshall), based on unclipped fish.
8/ TAC. Lower Granite age-specific estimates expanded to river mouth (IDFG – Marshall), based on clipped fish.
9/ TAC. Jack and ½ method. PRD jacks versus river mouth return (BY 1976-2001).
10/ TAC. 5-year average percent wild (13%).
11/ New method and accountability for Upper Columbia summer chinook. Upper Columbia summer chinook are now defined as fish passing Bonneville Dam from June 16 through July 31. Forecast developed by cohort relationships and provided by TAC.
12/ TAC. Expanded tributary forecasts.


TAC
December 17, 2004