Curt,

My initial responses in this thread dealt with steelhead bycatch in the chum fisheries, but I did take on the current harvest regime for the chums, as well.

I don't see how a set exploitation rate is a better thing for the fish than MSH. MSH aims at an artificially low number, and aims to kill everything over it. Exploitation rates may underharvest during years when run size is well over the old MSH number, resulting in greater escapements when the run size is high, but are just as likely to overharvest (relative to the old MSH/MSY number) during times when the run size is low.

For the Snohomish chums, I can speak to the numbers anecdotally...the numbers are not there, and have not been for several years. Since 2002 the fish have been showing up in lesser and lesser numbers. On a river like the Skagit there have been several years when there weren't even enough chums to have a fishery at all.

Go up and look at the typical gathering areas for chums on the Skykomish right now...they are barren of anything but a few old spawners, and some soup can coho...and when I say a few, I mean a few...like three or four.

It's Thanksgiving almost, and there are no chums in the Skykomish.

Where are they? Overharvested, or didn't show up? Either way, the exploitation rate, no matter what it is, is going to overharvest by a large factor this year.

Expressing disdain for MSH/MSY in no way means I have to accept the first alternative that the harvest managers try.

As always, when the fish are plentiful the management errors are buried in piles of fish, and they don't show up. By the time they do, and the fish runs are in the crapper, it's too late.

There has to be a middle ground where fish runs are not overharvested due to small run sizes that get over-exploited...because by the time we find out that there are not enough fish, it's when we are counting the remnants on the spawning grounds.

Right now, right this minute, there is perfectly good evidence to show that the chums are being overharvested...there are no fish in the Skykomish.

This doesn't requrie a billion dollar sonar system, or a dam with a fish ladder...all it requires is a sled ride up the river, a pencil, and a piece of paper...and right now, all it will take is a small piece of paper.

In this case, it's not that it's hard to go up and see that there are no fish, while the fishing is going on unabated and hardcore out in the salt...what's hard is anyone having the political will to just go up and look and see that there aren't any fish getting to the spawning grounds.

No one, and I mean no one, who is in harvest management at either NWIFC or at WDFW wants to be the one to make that call...they want to just point at the pre-season forecasts and justify what is happening now by what they did eight months ago, changing situations be damned.

Fish on...

Todd