Originally Posted By: Smalma

It was mentioned that there all ready is a brood stock program with the North Fork population. That program with a release goal of 200,000 smolts has been in effect for 25 years with minimal improvements in wild returns. Again from appendix C you'll see that since that program started roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of the spawners are from that program.

.....

The combination of the portion of hatchery spawners on the spawning grounds (more than 1/3) and the fishing rates (less than 1/3) would indicate that the spawning population (hatchery plus wild) is not or just barely replacing itself.

While it may be that the hatchery spawners are not as productive as the naturally produced fish, most of the available data indicates that both the capacity and productivty of the basin's habitat is so degraded that current North Fork escapements are near carrying capacity.


Tight lines
Curt


I believe Smalma's summary of the 25 year NF experience clearly shows that the relative numbers in my hypothetical River Zip scenario over multiple generations actually do pan out in real life.

1) We start with a conservation hatchery of similar magnitude: I assumed 50 hens producing 3500 eggs apiece yielding 175K eggs, but a hatcheryman I know says it's probably closer to 4000-4500 per chinook hen... or roughly 200-225K eggs.

2) We end up with a naturally-spawning population consisting of between 1/3 and 1/2 hatchery-born spawners.

3) We end up with disappointingly marginal gains at best within the population of wild-born spawners.

4) And we still end up approaching a miserable steady state over several generations based ENTIRELY on the carrying capacity of the habitat.

The only difference is now the depressed wild run is forced to co-exist within that limited carrying capacity with a superimposed hatchery component.

For the amount of time, talent, and treasure invested in the "conservation" hatchery, that's a pretty $hitty return.

Is that really the best use of limited salmon recovery dollars?

25 years of immediate past history is staring us right in the face with a very valuable lesson. You think anybody's paying attention?






_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!