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October 06, 2008

WCU/NPR Poll: Obama Ahead By Ten In Pennsylvania
Political Wire got an advance look at a new West Chester University/NPR poll in Pennsylvania that shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%, in the key battleground state.


2 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008


A Limited Town Hall
Lynn Sweet previews the rules for Tuesday night's town hall presidential debate moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw.

The questions will "be culled from a group of 100 to 150 uncommitted likely voters in the audience and another one-third to come via the Internet." Gallup "has the job of making sure the questioners reflect the demographic makeup of the nation."

"An audience member will not be allowed to switch questions. Under the deal, the moderator may not ask followups or make comments. The person who asks the question will not be allowed a follow-up either, and his or her microphone will be turned off after the question is read. A camera shot will only be shown of the person asking -- not reacting."

"While there will be director's chairs (with backs and foot rests), McCain and Obama will be allowed to stand -- but they can't roam past their 'designated area' to be marked on the stage. McCain and Obama are not supposed to ask each other direct questions."


6 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Fox/Rasmussen: Obama Gains in Key Swing States
The latest batch of Fox News/Rasmussen swing state polls shows that Sen. Barack Obama has made significant gains in Colorado, Missouri and Florida. In Ohio and Virginia, there was little change from the week before.

Florida: Obama 52%, McCain 45%

Colorado: Obama 51%, McCain 45%

Missouri: Obama 50%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 50%, McCain 48%

Ohio: McCain 48%, McCain 47%


5 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

The Clinton Charisma
The Clinton Charisma: A Legacy of Leadership In the mail: The Clinton Charisma by Donald T. Phillips, author of the bestselling Lincoln on Leadership.

The book is "a fascinating, prescriptive guide that reveals the former president's complex leadership techniques, including his attention to public opinion, his ability to take quick corrective action, and his efficient damage control in the face of political and personal difficulty. From diversity to decisiveness, from consensus to compromise, each chapter explores how Clinton employed important leadership principles and the ways in which they were -- or were not -- effective."


0 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

WP/ABC Poll: Obama Leads By Six in Ohio
Sen. Barack Obama "is riding economic discontent to an advantage in Ohio, bolstered in part by financially stressed voters in the state's hard-hit industrial belt," according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 51% to 45%, in the key swing state.


5 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

WSJ/NBC Poll: Obama Widens National Lead
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that independent voters are starting to swing behind Sen. Barack Obama, "who continue to benefits from economic turmoil and the public response to their debate performances."

Obama now leads Sen. John McCain by six points, 49% to 43%, up from just two points in the same poll two weeks ago.

Update: Interestingly, though most recent national polls show Obama increasing his lead, the latest CBS News poll has the race closer with Obama just edging McCain, 48% to 45%.


3 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

CNN Poll: Obama Expands National Lead
The latest CNN/Opinion Research survey shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain nationally by eight points, 53% to 45%.

Key finding: "Low approval numbers for the current commander-in-chief may be part of the reason Obama's fortunes are rising in the latest survey: Only 24% of those polled approve of President Bush's job performance, an all-time low for a CNN survey... And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican nominee would have the same policies as the current GOP president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush's, up from 50% a month ago."


55 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Martin Closes In On Senate Seat
There are now two polls in Georgia that show Jim Martin (D) has chance to knock off Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), a Senate seat once thought completely safe.

SurveyUSA: Chambliss 46%, Martin 44%

Research 2000: Chambliss 45%, Martin 44%


21 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

PPP Poll: Obama Expands Lead in North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCain, 50% to 44%.

For the first time, "Obama is earning over 80% of the vote from self identified Democrats, and that's fueling a four point increase in his lead in the state compared to last week. He now has an 82% to 15% lead with voters in his own party. His share of the Democratic vote had been anywhere between 69% and 76% in PPP's previous five surveys of the state."

Interesting: Obama's numbers rise every time he makes a visit to the state. McCain hasn't visited in five months.


44 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Democracy Corps: Obama Up By Six in Ohio
A new Democracy Corps poll in Ohio finds Sen. Barack Obama now leading Sen. John McCain, 49% to 43%.

Obama's lead is built "on an impressive 48% to 35% edge among independent voters. McCain's attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio as by 24%, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer and by 18%, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change. And in a state where the economy is king, Obama's aggressive positioning of the economic contrast with McCain has produced an 11-point Obama lead on which candidate will do a better job on the economy."


43 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

Suffolk Poll: Obama Crushing McCain in Virginia
A new Suffolk University poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by a stunning 12 points, 51% to 39%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: "Barack Obama has built a coalition of suburban DC area progressives from the north, African-American voters from the south, and young voters statewide. That broad-based support suggests a 44-year Republican run in the Old Dominion State, dating back to Lyndon Johnson's victory in 1964, is in jeopardy."

Key finding: "The poll shows last Thursday's vice presidential debate was a net plus for the Democratic ticket. Exactly three-quarters (75%) of likely voters watched and scored Joe Biden (46%) the clear winner over Sarah Palin (26%), while 20% said neither won the debate. When asked if the debate affected their presidential selection, 32% said it made them more likely to vote Obama, while 18% said the debate moved them to McCain, and 47% said the debate didn't affect their decision."

Earlier today, a SurveyUSA poll also showed Obama with a double-digit lead in Virginia.


64 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

SurveyUSA: Obama Way Ahead in New Hampshire
A new SurveyUSA poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Barack Obama leading by an astonishing 13 points, 53% to 40%.

A little history: "New Hampshire voted Republican in 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988 and 2000. New Hampshire voted Democrat in 1992, 1996 and 2004, but no Democrat running for President in New Hampshire has received more than 50% of the vote in the past 44 years."

Key findings: Obama holds a 22-point advantage among women, 29-point advantage among young voters, 21-point advantage among Moderates, 18-point advantage among those who consider themselves an intellectual, 24-point advantage among lower-income voters, and 23-point advantage among college graduates.


20 Comments | Share | October 06, 2008

SurveyUSA: Obama Pulls Away in Virginia
A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by ten points, 53% to 43%.

Since a similar poll conducted just after the Republican convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

Key finding: McCain no longer leads in any region of the state.

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