Chuck S.
Keep in mind that the ocean is a big place and each of our anadromous salmonid species have very different ocean preferences in terms of conditions, food sources, feeding areas, etc. As a result we see very different survival conditions for each of the various species at the same time. Thus we find situations such as we currently in where we are seeing exceptional survival of Puget Sound pink salmon and at the same time extremely poor survival of its steelhead.

To confuse the picture even further fish of a given species from different regions and even sometimes different stocks from the same region migrate to different areas of the ocean and may have different survivals. A species from Alaska or California may have very different survivals than say those from Puget Sound.

It would be very rare (see I have learned never to say never) to see all the species from a given area to have similar survival regimes. Thus it is likely that when conditions improve for Puget Sound steelhead we will likely see the conditions for pinks declining. Such is the nature of the beast.

Regarding the recent increase in survival of Green and Puyullap pinks. While it is true that neither system have much of an "estuary" left that generally is not critical habitat for pinks. At this point it might be well to more carefully define a couple of terms - generally when folks talk about "estuaries" they are thinking of the marshes associated with the river's delta. It is those marshes that are so critical to young Chinook fry which need the additional rearing to reach a size threshold where their marine survival increases. However our pink salmon (chum as well) are more associated with the near shore marine habitats along the beaches of Puget Sound. While in the strict since of the word that habitat is also estuarian habitat it is very different than that found in the delta. Generally the newly hatch pink fry are capable survival immediately upon reaching marine waters (do not seem to have a minimum size threshold for decent survival). As a result they generally move quickly through the delta habitats and begin feeding along the shallow water of the near-shore beaches moving with the tides growing all the while. As they increase in size they begin leaving the shallows moving out into deeper waters.

It may be that with the general clean up of the water in the Ports of Seattle and Tacoma that small pink fry are now able to reach that key near-shore habitat. That coupled with this period of excellent marine survival may explain the astounding expansion of the pink populations. Another example of what may happen when restoration efforts meet improved marine survival conditions? It will be interesting to see how those pink populations due when the marine survival conditions decline. While the other conditions improved to a point that those populations will persist at reasonable levels or will they decline to the levels seen during the later half of the last century?

One thing is clear; as pointed out by Salmo g. we don't have all the answers. It is also clear that a length of a single career (or even a human life time) is not near long enough period of time to see some of the variability that our anadromous populations can expect to experience over time.

Tight lines
Curt