I really struggle with the statistical justifications to continue harvest in the face of declining wild runs... esp on the front end of the run where the population has been so drastically cropped that every early-timed wild spawner should be allowed to get to the gravel.

I've seen WDFW justify those early openers by saying that's when the fishery is least likely to do harm because the odds of encountering a hatch fish are so much greater.

OK I buy it... but only on an individual basis. The odds of catching a wild fish on any given set or any given cast are VERY small. But since that is when participation in the fishery is greatest, the cumulative effect is that a significant number of early-timed wild fish will still be encountered. If the gear-type is not reasonably selective, the wild fish simply continue to be slaughtered.

It's a vicious cycle, the worse that part of the wild population declines, the worse they are hammered.

See why I struggle with the harvest logic?