Originally Posted By: Dogfish
Originally Posted By: Kanektok Kid
SW;

The drive for quarterly numbers has actually prevented banks from funding innovation, and investing for long term job creating growth companies.

PS; I'm not a smart guy, I am an asshole, ask anyone who posts here, they will agree.


I'll disagree on the first line. Totally agree on the second line. wink (Assholes have to stick together. Wow, that sounded kinda ghey.)

Funding innovation is what got us here. CDS, other deriviatives, etc, were all forms of funding innovation, creating great things out of crap, essentially polishing turds. The biggest issue was the actions of the money center banks who's CEO's had to follow the lead of the other "funding innovators", lest they be canned. The boards of directors of banks behind the curve noticed the profits of the other banks who were using derivatives and other "unique financial instruments" and gave direction to the CEO's and presidents of the other banks and said, "Make money!"

We saw this at our bank and couldn't make sense of it, the option arms primarily. Approve a person at a payment based on a 1.9% rate, give them a negative amortizing loan based on the 1.9% "supposedly fixed rate", yet the underlying loan was actually accruing at a rate of 7.5%. Add in a 110% LTV clause so that when the loan balance reach 110% the payment switched to the payment based on the 7.5% rate. Payments doubled. These were essentially ticking time bombs, where 5% of the original loan balance accrued every year, so $0 down loans, or 3% down loans, were destined to implode 2-3 years down the road.

We (your local community bank or credit union) didn't cause this bull sh!t, but we have certainly taken LOTS of collateral damage. My little bank started scaling back on spec financing in 2006, and stopped it altogether in 2007, except for projects under way. Thankfully. It was unpopular, and certainly not innovative, but it saved our ass. We saw the writing on the wall.

As far as the incentive to lend, that has all but been regulated away. Imagine if you will each bank has a number of buckets. These buckets represent the limit of how much of a percentage of the net worth of a bank can be leveraged towards certain types of loans. We'll work in whole numbers, say $100 million is our net worth, aka total risk based capital. The standard for this risk based capital to be "well capitalized" (aka... having sufficient liquidity to weather loan defaults and a run on the bank) was 10%. Well the FDIC and OCC (office of the comptroller of the currency) changed this measurement to be 12% to be well capitalized. This dried up the ability of banks to employ funds in an "innovative manner". Instead of leaveraging at 10:1, the ratio changed to 8:1, reducing money on the street available to lend by 20% overnight. Add to that the change in the bucket method, where it was okay to use 300-500% of your equity on non-owner occupied loans (hotel/motel, apartments, rental houses, where income from rents repay the note) to a "written in stone" limit of 300%. We were at 374%, or $374 million (MM) in this type of loan when the decree was handed down to us. We had to wait until $74MM paid down vefore we were at the limit. If you had more than 300%, guess what, no lending, period, in that category, no matter what, until you drained the excess out of that bucket. The fawkers hit us at both ends of the spectrum, making many banks pass on completely bankable deals. ( I turned away 3 decent deals this week because of this. ) Obama is a fool because he wants banks to lend money "dammit". The policies put in place by his administration are hampering lending, not helping. He has no clue.

I have no love for that whore, our governor, as she has sold us out, and so have the folks who voted to suspend the initiative. Every chance she got, she sold us out. Unions, tribes, etc. Now it is their chance to correct government, and they choose to not make the hard sacrifice and cut staff within the State machine. Every other business has had to do this, except for one of my clients in the Voc Rehab business (and they are looking for employees if you are a techi). Time for the State to bleed off some excess as well.

Lots more to cover, but I have a some wine calling my name.


Dogfish,

You've hit the nail on the head here in many ways. The amount of negative exposure existing within the CDS market would make one's head spin. The initial $180 billion AIG bailout to cover counterparties (not one of which was forced to take a haircut BTW) was a mere drop in the bucket compared to existing face value on the CDS contracts. There are many figures out there, but to the best of my knowledge current face value on the contracts stands somewhere around 70-90 trillion,......with a T. It's hard to speculate the amount of capital invested in these premiums since there is no listed exchange and I haven't been paying attention for awhile but in late 2008 CDS contracts on Berkshire were going for 858bps. If you just used 900bps as a running average you could conclude that around 9 trillion has been paid into this system, probably much more. Add that to the fact the contracts can be sold, borrowed against, traded, and packaged. The web tangles even further. Assessing and attributing risk has become impossible with no clear chain of title and no real knowledge of who's on the hook for who.

Option ARM's are a whole other story indeed. At first they were primarily used in areas of California. They quickly spread to other states like Nevada, Florida, Arizona, and Washington. One of the last companies I worked for packaged and sold around 4 billion of Option ARM's in 2007 and we were a small wholesaler selling during the draw down. The MBS and CDO packages on these things were sold to unknowing pension funds, foreign governments and banks (in the know), and many large US banks (also in the know). They were all sold with the predication that home values in the US would never go down, ha! Many had LTV limits before recast of much higher than 110%. Most of the ones I packaged had limits of 125%. Most started out as 90-95% LTV loans, but many were also in the 80-85% range as UW criteria tightened in 2007. The damage now is two fold. The packages that are already worthless have been picked up by the Fed dollar for dollar from the big banks and now reside on the Fed's balance sheet with you know who on the hook. The other side of this is that the majority of the Option ARM's were written from 2005-2008 with 5yr neg am periods. This means that this year 2010 is the first year we will see any major recasts of these ARM's and will see recasts all the way into 2013. Don't quote me on this but I think that there is somewhere in the neighborhood of $200-$300 billion worth of these still out there. Thought we were throught the foreclosure mess? Think again. I personally won't be buying another home until 2013 or 2014. Renting is just fine by me until then.

You brought up some things about leverage ratios I was unaware of. Particularly the 8:1 rule for small banks. I knew smaller banks were disadvantaged but I didn't know by how much. Considering that, as an example, CITI was leveraged 33:1 prior September 2008. Also was uaware of the rule change for leverage concerning NOO properties. When did that change?

Good post and good discussion here. Salmo g,.......yes there is intelligent life on Earth. Now we just have to educate the masses to kill their television.

KK good on you for switching banks. I've been meaning to get away from my mega bank for some time now. No more delay from me. I think I'll do that today.
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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.