Originally Posted By: summerrun
Andy, what is your perspective on commercial over the next few years? On the residential side I personally see 2010 and early 2011 as the bottom and most of the "bad" paper will have worked its way through the system in the next year or so once the Option Arm resets are completed.

From what I understand most if not all commercial loans are written with a short term maturation and there is a huge underwater portfolio just waiting to explode over the next few years?

BTW I worked at IndyMac during their last 6 months in business. It was the first and last big box bank I will ever work for. An unreal mess from top to bottom in that company from what I saw.



Yesterday while home for lunch I caught a snippet of Sheila Blair on CNBC saying that by Q3 40% of commercial borrowers would be underwater adversly affecting over 4,000 banks (mostly smaller community banks) nationwide.

The future of the commercial market does not look good and hasn't for some time.


Edited by StinkingWaters (02/12/10 12:53 PM)
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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.