Ah rainy days. Lets try this. A bio used to give his unscientific probability of returns based on a group of five. He did this as a rough guide to what events shaped a run. Heavy fall floods, ( and size matters ) low summer flows, wet spring with late mild flooding and water color & temp, ocean conditions AT TIME OF SALT ENTRY, and ocean conditions until return.

Took me a bit to get it but if you had say good spawning conditions and a wet spring, two out of five. Add good ocean three and so on. As you seldom get all five he didn't worry about it. The ocean survival thing he said was the wild card as was the out migrant numbers as the agencies do not have those numbers only how many adults spawned. Add to it AK & BC then depending on where you are it gets a little more strange.

So do this, just watch and don't color your view with anything but fish. On a average year he said we had about a 2 1/2. Wet springs really help as does if we do not have a 100 year flood. Ocean survival is the one that nobody seems to truly know, some very educated guesses, and drives everything. You can have the first 3 in the toilet and the ocean up across the board and you will have a lot of survival, depending on species and AK & BC. ( By the way BC sport seldom report Chinook or Coho caught unless around urban areas )

It is truly a crap shoot but the old boy was usually right close.