It would be highly unlikely that "fishing well into escapement 3 or 4 years ago" would have any impact on this year's return. Assuming of course that this was meant to mean fishing into natural escapement. The fall Chinook run to the Nisqually is substantially made up of returns from the hatchery program (~90%), and whether or not natural escapement is made has had little impact on the return to the river. To my knowledge the tribal hatcheries have been at full program level since a couple of years after the opening of the Clear Creek hatchery.