Wit,
There are tons of studies regarding hooking mortality associated with bait, artificial lures, and flies. The issue tends to be debated most by those who have already made up their minds and aren't open to thoughtful persuasion.
One thing is certain. No hook and line fishery is risk free as far as hooking mortality goes. If a particular fishery is open to angling, C&R, no bait, artificials or flies only, then the manager must accept a degree of risk of losing fish to hooking mortality.
Equally certain, but less popularly accepted, is that there is a definite gradation in hooking mortality associated with bait, then lures, then flies. Barbs make a difference in studies of trout fishing, but are less of an issue with steelhead and salmon, due to the size of the fish. Barbed hooks don't make much difference with large fish.
The issue becomes a more visceral issue (gut level knowledge) as angler expertise comes into play. An accomplished bait angler can fish for steelhead for years and seldom allow a steelhead to swallow the bait. A less skilled angler may end up gut-hooking a fair number of fish. If there were data on this, it would get really skewed because skilled anglers with lots of expertise are going to hook far more fish than their less skilled counterparts.
From the reports I've seen and my personal experience I draw a few conclusions. I don't think bait or barbed hooks are a serious conservation issue when anglers are releasing salmon and steelhead. (Killing females for their eggs are potentially a serious indirect effect.) I do think that baitless and barbless are a good way to go when lots of trout, smolts, or juvenile fish are present. When I'm trout fishing, I only use barbless flies because data and personal experience both indicate that will have the lowest mortality rate.
An interesting dilemma occurs this time of year. A lot of us are or will be doing some serious salmon fishing the next two months. We'll be using bait, barbed hooks, and lures the size of our springtime lowland lake trout catch. And the peak of the sea run cutthroat run is on. And they hit anything and everything you can put in the water. My heart just sinks when I reel in a 16" cutthroat with a 2/0 salmon hook sticking out the side of its head. I'm as careful as I can, but I know that fish is facing real long odds at surviving until spawning. A bait ban, and even barbless hooks, don't keep me from having unintended adverse effects on fish I would not choose to harm.
What's a guy to do? I freely acknowledge that fishing is indeed a blood sport. I fully intend to kill some of the fish I catch each year. But for a long time now, I've choosen to always release wild steelhead and cutthroat because their populations are invariably small, and release keeps the overall impact as low as I can without giving up fishing. Add these thoughts to the collection.
Sincerely,
Salmo g.