So: We seem to be reasoning out that the Tribe will lose a bunch of hatchery fish if they win this. Do we really believe the Tribe didn't consider that risk and decide they would still benefit from getting whitey off the river? Is there precedent for WDFW closing hatcheries due to lack of sport fisher access to the fish produced?

There was another thread here recently that addressed what I thought was a ridiculous closure of Lake Cushman to non-tribal fishing. Turned out the justification lied in a Skok Tribe/Tacoma Power project (advertised) to restore salmon stocks to the upper North Fork that is just beginning to release smolts. This development makes me wonder if the Tribe's plan is to replace the harvest lost from closing the lower river to non-tribal fishing with harvest from their new hatchery. Consider the potential benefits to the Tribe:

$ Easy terminal harvest/egg take at the base of the dams.
$ PR points for restoring "wild" salmon to a stream in which they were practically (and functionally) extinct.
$ No more sharing of whatever catch is available with whitey.
$ No more enforcement issues on the river....

The big one for me is getting rid of the catch sharing. Even with less hatchery production (which I don't think will happen, whether we close our hatcheries or not), 100% of the available catch is likely to be very near or better than what they get from their 50% today.

The chum thing is a bit compelling, but I suspect they'll find a way around that issue.

Anybody else see shades of the Lower Quinault in this deal? Would anybody be surprised (should this deal go down) to learn that non-tribal fishers can fish the Lower Skok for kings or Lake Cushman for sockeye after all... provided they're with a tribal guide?

That was a long-winded way of saying that I doubt the Tribe will back down if we threaten to shut down our hatcheries. Pretty sure they have a Plan B in the works.